· US base oils prices stay relatively firm and in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil prices..· Steady base oils price-premium sustains incentive for refiners to maintain high output.· Supply could get further boost if Atlantic hurricane season remains quiet, leaving market with untapped buffer stocks.· Release of those stocks in coming weeks would add to supply and cut demand.· Atlantic storm activity remains quiet at end-Aug 2025. · Tropical wave off coast of West Africa could develop into storm over coming week.· High US base oils output and prospect of slack domestic demand increases importance of maintaining high exports to overseas markets to limit build-up of surplus volumes.· US Group II heavy-grade base oils export-price maintains wide discount to CFR India price..· Wide price-discount points to ongoing surplus volumes to clear, facilitates removal of those volumes.· Lower US export prices cut attraction of moving arbitrage shipments from Asia to Americas.· Limited arbitrage flows from other regions curb any pick-up in additional supplies.· Limited arbitrage flows from other regions in turn leave buyers more reliant on supplies from US..· Latin America’s base oils supply likely remains sufficient to cover requirements without need for surge in shipments from US.· Buyers’ preference to maintain low stocks and to procure from domestic suppliers could sustain support for higher regional output.· Brazil’s base oils supply rises to ten-month high in July 2025 as domestic output rises to highest in almost a decade..· Unusual surge in output could reflect stronger-than-usual domestic demand amid competitive prices and buyers’ preference to manage stocks carefully.· Procurement of smaller volumes more regularly, for more prompt delivery from domestic sources facilitates such moves.· Extension of that strategy could support higher-than-usual domestic base oils output.· Any change in strategy, to target more shipments from overseas markets, could conversely trigger drop in regional output.· Such a change in strategy could materialize in coming weeks..· Argentina’s base oils supply falls in July 2025 to lowest in more than five years..· Supply falls amid unexpected dip in domestic base oils output.· Dip in output leaves supply lagging demand, prompting moves to tap stocks to cover requirements.· Argentina’s base oils stocks duly fall in July 2025 to lowest in more than a year..· Any rapid recovery in base oils output could help to replenish stocks and curb need to line up supplies from other sources.· Slower recovery in output could conversely put more pressure on buyers to seek additional supplies from overseas markets.· Any resumption of Argentina’s higher-than-usual flow of base oils exports would point to recovery in domestic production, as well as its supply and inventory levels..· Europe’s Group I base oils supply likely to be readily available as firm margins support high production levels.· Recent shipment from Mediterranean market to Nigeria points to pick-up in surplus volumes and moves to limit any supply-build.· Regional supply could get further boost from any additional shipments from markets like Turkey to Europe.· Turkey’s base oils output rises in June 2025 to second-highest level in more than nine years..· Surge in output in recent months contrasts with typical production levels of less than 10,000 tonnes/month in 2024.· Rise in output coincides with resumption of shipments from Turkey to Europe in June 2025.· Size of rise in output leaves sufficient volumes to line up additional shipments to move to Europe or to other outlets like India..· Europe Group II base oils supply likely to stay readily available as firm prices incentivize high regional output.· Firm prices relative to other regions like US also sustain incentive for overseas suppliers to move more shipments to Europe..· Multiple sources of supply help to balance out drop in supply from any one of those sources, keeping availability at healthy levels.· Any removal of Europe tariffs on shipments from US would facilitate economics of moving more US supplies to Europe.· Most US shipments to Europe consist of Group II base oils.· Europe’s Group II base oils exports could ease in coming months following expected ramp-up of output of new unit in Singapore.· Rise in output likely to at least curb recent pick-up in flow of shipments from Europe to southeast Asia..· Europe Group III base oils supply likely to get boost from revival in flows from Middle East and Asia, with one shipment from southeast Asia set to arrive this week..Argentina’s July base oils supply falls.Brazil’s July base oils supply exceeds demand .Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 1 September.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 1 September
