· Global base oils prices mostly extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, ICIS data shows.· Firm/widening premium to VGO/diesel incentivizes refiners to maintain or increase production at a time of year when demand typically faces a seasonal slowdown.· Asia base oils prices extend rise vs regional gasoil prices.· Asia Group I SN 150 premium to gasoil extends rise to highest since 1H Jun 2023.· Asia Group II N150 premium to gasoil stays high vs Q3 levels, down from recent high in 1H Nov 2023..· Firmer rebound in premium of Group I base oils to gasoil reflects their tighter supply fundamentals..· China’s domestic Group II light-grade premium to Shandong diesel prices steadies after sustained slide for almost a month..· China’s light-grade premium to diesel steadied the same time a year earlier before rebounding strongly over the following four months.· Any repeat of that scenario over the coming months would point to stronger pick-up domestic demand..· Premium of cfr India N70 over regional gasoil prices edges up after sharp fall since 1H Nov 2023..· N70 premium stays well above Q3 2023 levels, supports incentive for overseas refiners to maintain steady/higher output of the product..· Europe’s Group I export base oil premium to gasoil prices extends rise to highest since end-Q2 2023.· Europe’s Group I export SN 150 premium to VGO extends rise to highest this year.· Europe’s domestic Group I SN 150 premium to VGO rises but less strongly than export price premium..· Trend reflects narrowing domestic price-premium to export prices since Aug 2023 and signs of still-limited availability for export.· Europe’s Group II light-grade price premium to VGO extends rise to highest since July 2023.· Europe’s Group II light-grade premium to VGO rises above average of around $530/t so far this year.· Europe’s Group II light-grade premium to VGO rises more strongly than Group I SN 150 premium since end-Oct 2023.· Widening Group II price premium to Group I prices in recent weeks mirrors year-earlier trend, could incentivize blenders to use more Group I instead.· Europe’s Group III 4cst (low) premium to VGO extends fall to lowest since Q2 2022.· Falling Group III premium contrasts with firmer Group I/II premium, reflecting diverging fundamentals.· Trend cuts Group III premium to Group I/II to narrowest in more than a year.· Increasingly narrow premium to Group I/II could incentivize blenders to consume more Group III instead..· US Group II light-grade export prices flip back to discount to heating oil for first time since Sep 2023.· US Group II heavy-grade export price premium to heating oil slumps to lowest in nineteen months.· Previous fall in US heavy-grade export price premium to heating oil reflected volatility/surge in heating oil prices in Feb-Apr 2022.· Latest fall in heavy-grade export price premium reflects slump in outright price.· Slump in light/heavy grade premium to heating oil incentivizes refiners to minimize output to cover term commitments only.· US domestic Group II light-grade premium to VGO falls to lowest in more than a month..· Light-grade premium to VGO holds firm vs Q3 2023 levels and especially vs fob export levels.· Trend reflects surging Group II domestic premium to fob export prices since end-Oct 2023.· Relatively firm Group II domestic prices could limit incentive for refiners to lower production.· US Group III 4cst premium to VGO steadies close to lowest since Q2 2022.· US Group II posted prices stay relatively high vs VGO, well above Q3 2023 levels, even after recent posted-price cut.· US Group II light/heavy-grade posted price reverts to unusually steep premium to domestic prices.· Wide premium could incentivize buyers to hold back in anticipation of lower prices..Global base oils - week of Dec 4: Price outlook - margins.Global base oils - week of Dec 4: Price outlook - margins
· Global base oils prices mostly extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, ICIS data shows.· Firm/widening premium to VGO/diesel incentivizes refiners to maintain or increase production at a time of year when demand typically faces a seasonal slowdown.· Asia base oils prices extend rise vs regional gasoil prices.· Asia Group I SN 150 premium to gasoil extends rise to highest since 1H Jun 2023.· Asia Group II N150 premium to gasoil stays high vs Q3 levels, down from recent high in 1H Nov 2023..· Firmer rebound in premium of Group I base oils to gasoil reflects their tighter supply fundamentals..· China’s domestic Group II light-grade premium to Shandong diesel prices steadies after sustained slide for almost a month..· China’s light-grade premium to diesel steadied the same time a year earlier before rebounding strongly over the following four months.· Any repeat of that scenario over the coming months would point to stronger pick-up domestic demand..· Premium of cfr India N70 over regional gasoil prices edges up after sharp fall since 1H Nov 2023..· N70 premium stays well above Q3 2023 levels, supports incentive for overseas refiners to maintain steady/higher output of the product..· Europe’s Group I export base oil premium to gasoil prices extends rise to highest since end-Q2 2023.· Europe’s Group I export SN 150 premium to VGO extends rise to highest this year.· Europe’s domestic Group I SN 150 premium to VGO rises but less strongly than export price premium..· Trend reflects narrowing domestic price-premium to export prices since Aug 2023 and signs of still-limited availability for export.· Europe’s Group II light-grade price premium to VGO extends rise to highest since July 2023.· Europe’s Group II light-grade premium to VGO rises above average of around $530/t so far this year.· Europe’s Group II light-grade premium to VGO rises more strongly than Group I SN 150 premium since end-Oct 2023.· Widening Group II price premium to Group I prices in recent weeks mirrors year-earlier trend, could incentivize blenders to use more Group I instead.· Europe’s Group III 4cst (low) premium to VGO extends fall to lowest since Q2 2022.· Falling Group III premium contrasts with firmer Group I/II premium, reflecting diverging fundamentals.· Trend cuts Group III premium to Group I/II to narrowest in more than a year.· Increasingly narrow premium to Group I/II could incentivize blenders to consume more Group III instead..· US Group II light-grade export prices flip back to discount to heating oil for first time since Sep 2023.· US Group II heavy-grade export price premium to heating oil slumps to lowest in nineteen months.· Previous fall in US heavy-grade export price premium to heating oil reflected volatility/surge in heating oil prices in Feb-Apr 2022.· Latest fall in heavy-grade export price premium reflects slump in outright price.· Slump in light/heavy grade premium to heating oil incentivizes refiners to minimize output to cover term commitments only.· US domestic Group II light-grade premium to VGO falls to lowest in more than a month..· Light-grade premium to VGO holds firm vs Q3 2023 levels and especially vs fob export levels.· Trend reflects surging Group II domestic premium to fob export prices since end-Oct 2023.· Relatively firm Group II domestic prices could limit incentive for refiners to lower production.· US Group III 4cst premium to VGO steadies close to lowest since Q2 2022.· US Group II posted prices stay relatively high vs VGO, well above Q3 2023 levels, even after recent posted-price cut.· US Group II light/heavy-grade posted price reverts to unusually steep premium to domestic prices.· Wide premium could incentivize buyers to hold back in anticipation of lower prices..Global base oils - week of Dec 4: Price outlook - margins.Global base oils - week of Dec 4: Price outlook - margins