· Global base oils values stay mixed vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Base oils margins stay firm in US, firm in Europe for Group I base oils, and extend slide in Asia.· Differing trends point to diverging fundamentals in different markets for different base oils grades.· Asia’s base oils prices extend sharp slide vs regional gasoil prices since early June 2024.· FOB NE Asia Group II N150 premium to gasoil falls to lowest since March 2024; N500 falls to lowest since H1 April 2024..· FOB NE Asia and ex-tank Singapore N500 premium to gasoil remains much higher than at start of 2024.· Still-firm premium could curb urgency for refiners to adjust output.· Premium's downward trend, and similar such slide in Q3 2023, could incentivize refiners to adjust output anyway..· China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel prices edges higher, holding in middle of range since end-2023..· Firm premium contrasts with sliding FOB NE Asia Group II premium to regional gasoil prices.· Firm premium points to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals in China, especially compared with rest of Asia..· CFR India N70 premium to Singapore gasoil prices extends fall to lowest since H1 Feb 2024..· Lower premium cuts feasibility of moving more shipments from Asia to India unless Asia refiners cut price offers.· Lower price offers would boost incentive for refiners to produce more diesel instead..· Europe’s Group I domestic and export prices hold firm vs VGO prices, contrasting with sliding margins in Asia.· Europe’s firm Group I premium to VGO contrasts with ongoing dip in Group II/III premium to VGO..· Trend suggests Group I and premium-grade supply-demand fundamentals continue to diverge..· US Group II base oils price premium to VGO holds steady and firm, even after sustained rebound in crude oil prices since early June 2024..· Firm price premium sustains incentive for refiners to maintain or raise base oils output.· US Group II light-grade price premium almost matches Europe Group II light-grade price premium..· Similar premium curbs incentivize for US refiners to move more shipments to Europe..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 8 July.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 8 July
· Global base oils values stay mixed vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Base oils margins stay firm in US, firm in Europe for Group I base oils, and extend slide in Asia.· Differing trends point to diverging fundamentals in different markets for different base oils grades.· Asia’s base oils prices extend sharp slide vs regional gasoil prices since early June 2024.· FOB NE Asia Group II N150 premium to gasoil falls to lowest since March 2024; N500 falls to lowest since H1 April 2024..· FOB NE Asia and ex-tank Singapore N500 premium to gasoil remains much higher than at start of 2024.· Still-firm premium could curb urgency for refiners to adjust output.· Premium's downward trend, and similar such slide in Q3 2023, could incentivize refiners to adjust output anyway..· China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel prices edges higher, holding in middle of range since end-2023..· Firm premium contrasts with sliding FOB NE Asia Group II premium to regional gasoil prices.· Firm premium points to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals in China, especially compared with rest of Asia..· CFR India N70 premium to Singapore gasoil prices extends fall to lowest since H1 Feb 2024..· Lower premium cuts feasibility of moving more shipments from Asia to India unless Asia refiners cut price offers.· Lower price offers would boost incentive for refiners to produce more diesel instead..· Europe’s Group I domestic and export prices hold firm vs VGO prices, contrasting with sliding margins in Asia.· Europe’s firm Group I premium to VGO contrasts with ongoing dip in Group II/III premium to VGO..· Trend suggests Group I and premium-grade supply-demand fundamentals continue to diverge..· US Group II base oils price premium to VGO holds steady and firm, even after sustained rebound in crude oil prices since early June 2024..· Firm price premium sustains incentive for refiners to maintain or raise base oils output.· US Group II light-grade price premium almost matches Europe Group II light-grade price premium..· Similar premium curbs incentivize for US refiners to move more shipments to Europe..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 8 July.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 8 July