· Global base oils prices rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices following slide in crude/diesel prices.· Firmer base oils values incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.· Demand fundamentals would need to be firmer to absorb any subsequent rise in supply.· FOB NE Asia Group II price premium to Singapore gasoil prices extends rise to highest in close to a year..· Widening premium adds to incentive for refiners to maintain or raise output.· Asia’s Group II premium to gasoil followed a similar trend in first four months of 2023, before a sharp slide that began in H1 May 2023.· FOB Asia Group I brightstock price premium to Singapore gasoil holds at highest in almost a year.· Firm Group I base oils values vs gasoil incentivize refines to boost output; any rise in supply could be more muted because of lower production capacity..· China’s domestic Group II light-grade price premium to Shandong diesel prices rises to highest in more than two months..· Rising base oils premium contrasts with falling premium the same time a year earlier.· Any extension of the trend could incentivize domestic refiners to maintain or raise base oils output, especially at a time when diesel values remain weak..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil prices holds firm close to highest in more than five months..· Firm premium incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise very-light grade base oils output rather than redirect supplies back into diesel pool..· Europe’s Group I base oils export price premium to VGO extends rise, exceeding year-earlier levels, especially for SN 150.· Europe’s Group I SN 150 domestic price premium to VGO climbs to highest in more than three months, rises more strongly than Group II light-grade premium..· US Group II export price premium to heating oil and VGO extend strong rebound.· Group II export light-grade premium to VGO rebounds more than $190/tonne since mid-March 2024 to five-month high.· Group II export heavy-grade premium to VGO rebounds more than $150/tonne since mid-March 2024 to five-month high.· US Group II domestic heavy-grade premium to VGO edges up from three-year low in H2 April 2024, lags pace of rise in export-price premium.· US Group II domestic light-grade premium to VGO surges to highest since mid-Jan 2024.· Rise in domestic light-grade premium outpaces rise in heavy-grade premium..· Rise in light-grade price premium outpaces rise in Europe and Singapore Group II price premium. .Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 6 May.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 6 May
