· Global base oils prices mostly stay relatively steady vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Rangebound premiums contrast with sharp fall in margins during final weeks of 2023.· Diverging margins trends vs last year point to different supply-demand fundamentals vs same period last year.· Any extension of trend would point to less pressure from oversupply at year-end this year than last year. · FOB Asia base oils price premium to Singapore gasoil holds steady at firm levels, especially for heavy grades and for brightstock..· FOB Asia brightstock premium to gasoil extends rise to highest in more than three years.· Rising brightstock premium incentivizes refiners to maximise output of the product.· Sustained strength of premium points to ongoing supply-tightness, suggesting insufficient regional production capacity..· China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel prices steadies, holding in relatively narrow range since April 2024..· Steady premium contrasts with steep fall in premium this time a year ago, at a time when seasonal slowdown in demand typically puts pressure on prices.· Steady premium this time points to more balanced fundamentals than usual for time of year.· Steady premium coincides with dip in China’s Group II base oils output because of plant shutdown..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil price holds steady in narrow range..· Steady premium in narrow range mirrors similar trend for China’s Group II light-grade prices, contrasts with more volatile premium in 2023, including end-2023.· Steady premium holds at levels that keeps arbitrage to India open and continues to incentivize overseas refiners to direct very-light grade base oils into base oils rather than diesel pool..· Europe Group I export base oils price premium to VGO falls to lowest since Q2 2024..· Group I export price premium falls at time of year when it often faces downward pressure in response to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.· Europe’s Group I export premium fell more steeply to much lower levels in final weeks of 2023 and in early 2024.· Repeat of that trend in coming weeks would point to similarly-weak supply-demand fundamentals at year-end.· More muted pressure on price premium would by contrast point to less surplus supply vs year-earlier levels..· US Group II export-price premium to VGO steadies..· Steadier heavy-grade premium in Nov 2024 contrasts with sharp slump in premium from Oct 2023 to March 2024.· Any extension of this year’s trend, and the avoidance of last year’s sharp slump, would point to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals during final weeks of this year vs same period last year.
· Global base oils prices mostly stay relatively steady vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Rangebound premiums contrast with sharp fall in margins during final weeks of 2023.· Diverging margins trends vs last year point to different supply-demand fundamentals vs same period last year.· Any extension of trend would point to less pressure from oversupply at year-end this year than last year. · FOB Asia base oils price premium to Singapore gasoil holds steady at firm levels, especially for heavy grades and for brightstock..· FOB Asia brightstock premium to gasoil extends rise to highest in more than three years.· Rising brightstock premium incentivizes refiners to maximise output of the product.· Sustained strength of premium points to ongoing supply-tightness, suggesting insufficient regional production capacity..· China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel prices steadies, holding in relatively narrow range since April 2024..· Steady premium contrasts with steep fall in premium this time a year ago, at a time when seasonal slowdown in demand typically puts pressure on prices.· Steady premium this time points to more balanced fundamentals than usual for time of year.· Steady premium coincides with dip in China’s Group II base oils output because of plant shutdown..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil price holds steady in narrow range..· Steady premium in narrow range mirrors similar trend for China’s Group II light-grade prices, contrasts with more volatile premium in 2023, including end-2023.· Steady premium holds at levels that keeps arbitrage to India open and continues to incentivize overseas refiners to direct very-light grade base oils into base oils rather than diesel pool..· Europe Group I export base oils price premium to VGO falls to lowest since Q2 2024..· Group I export price premium falls at time of year when it often faces downward pressure in response to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.· Europe’s Group I export premium fell more steeply to much lower levels in final weeks of 2023 and in early 2024.· Repeat of that trend in coming weeks would point to similarly-weak supply-demand fundamentals at year-end.· More muted pressure on price premium would by contrast point to less surplus supply vs year-earlier levels..· US Group II export-price premium to VGO steadies..· Steadier heavy-grade premium in Nov 2024 contrasts with sharp slump in premium from Oct 2023 to March 2024.· Any extension of this year’s trend, and the avoidance of last year’s sharp slump, would point to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals during final weeks of this year vs same period last year.
