· Asia's base oils prices extend rise vs competing/feedstock prices, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.· Europe’s Group I domestic base oils price premium to VGO stays unusually weak.· US’ Group II export price premium to VGO stays unusually weak even after recent rebound.· Weaker values incentivize refiners to trim output.· FOB Asia base oil prices extend rise vs regional gasoil prices, boosting incentive for refiners to maintain or raise output.· FOB Asia Group I brightstock premium to gasoil rises to highest since May 2023, pointing to ongoing supply tightness.· FOB NE Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to gasoil rises to highest since June 2023..· Rising premium boosts incentive for refiners to focus on maximising output of heavy-grade supplies.· China’s domestic Group II 150N base oil premium to Shandong diesel rises to highest in a month, stays below highest level so far in 2024 and well below year-earlier levels..· Rangebound premium at a time of year when demand usually peaks points to sufficient supply, curbs incentive for refiners to boost output..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Asia gasoil prices rises to highest in more than three months..· Higher premium boosts incentive for Asia’s refiners to maintain output of very-light grade base oils..· Europe’s Group I domestic price premium to VGO prices stay unusually low.· Europe’s Group I domestic SN500 premium to VGO holds close to lowest since Q1 2022.· Europe’s Group I domestic brightstock premium to VGO holds close to lowest since H2 2020..· Low premiums to VGO incentivize refiners to cut output.· Europe’s Group I export prices extend strong recovery through March 2024 to highest since start of the year.· Firmer export price margins unlikely to incentivize refiners to raise output.· Europe Group II light-grade premium to VGO holds close to lowest since Oct 2023, stays below year-earlier levels.· Europe Group III 4cSt (low) premium to VGO extends gradual fall to lowest since Q1 2022..· US Group II export price differential to heating oil/VGO prices stays unusually weak even as it rebounds in H2 March 2024.· US Group II N100 export price premium to VGO rises to highest in almost two months, still down more than $300/t since Nov 2023..· Still-weak export prices maintain incentive for refiners to curb output of surplus supplies.· US domestic Group II price premium to VGO holds close to lowest in more than two years.· US Group II light-grade posted-price premium to VGO holds in narrow range close to lowest since Q3 2023.· Weak margins point to demand that is insufficient to absorb plentiful supply.· US Group III 4cSt price premium to VGO holds close to lowest in more than three years.· Sustained, gradual drop in Group III price premium points to ongoing imbalance in supply-demand fundamentals..Global base oils arb outlook: Week of March 25
· Asia's base oils prices extend rise vs competing/feedstock prices, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.· Europe’s Group I domestic base oils price premium to VGO stays unusually weak.· US’ Group II export price premium to VGO stays unusually weak even after recent rebound.· Weaker values incentivize refiners to trim output.· FOB Asia base oil prices extend rise vs regional gasoil prices, boosting incentive for refiners to maintain or raise output.· FOB Asia Group I brightstock premium to gasoil rises to highest since May 2023, pointing to ongoing supply tightness.· FOB NE Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to gasoil rises to highest since June 2023..· Rising premium boosts incentive for refiners to focus on maximising output of heavy-grade supplies.· China’s domestic Group II 150N base oil premium to Shandong diesel rises to highest in a month, stays below highest level so far in 2024 and well below year-earlier levels..· Rangebound premium at a time of year when demand usually peaks points to sufficient supply, curbs incentive for refiners to boost output..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Asia gasoil prices rises to highest in more than three months..· Higher premium boosts incentive for Asia’s refiners to maintain output of very-light grade base oils..· Europe’s Group I domestic price premium to VGO prices stay unusually low.· Europe’s Group I domestic SN500 premium to VGO holds close to lowest since Q1 2022.· Europe’s Group I domestic brightstock premium to VGO holds close to lowest since H2 2020..· Low premiums to VGO incentivize refiners to cut output.· Europe’s Group I export prices extend strong recovery through March 2024 to highest since start of the year.· Firmer export price margins unlikely to incentivize refiners to raise output.· Europe Group II light-grade premium to VGO holds close to lowest since Oct 2023, stays below year-earlier levels.· Europe Group III 4cSt (low) premium to VGO extends gradual fall to lowest since Q1 2022..· US Group II export price differential to heating oil/VGO prices stays unusually weak even as it rebounds in H2 March 2024.· US Group II N100 export price premium to VGO rises to highest in almost two months, still down more than $300/t since Nov 2023..· Still-weak export prices maintain incentive for refiners to curb output of surplus supplies.· US domestic Group II price premium to VGO holds close to lowest in more than two years.· US Group II light-grade posted-price premium to VGO holds in narrow range close to lowest since Q3 2023.· Weak margins point to demand that is insufficient to absorb plentiful supply.· US Group III 4cSt price premium to VGO holds close to lowest in more than three years.· Sustained, gradual drop in Group III price premium points to ongoing imbalance in supply-demand fundamentals..Global base oils arb outlook: Week of March 25
