· Global base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export price differentials mostly much firmer than year-earlier levels.· Any extension of trend would point to margins bottoming out earlier this year than last year.· Any extension of trend would point to more muted pressure from surplus supply overhang at end-2024 and early-2025 compared with same time a year earlier..· FOB Asia base oils premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm after rebounding since mid-Jan 2025.· FOB Asia Group I brightstock premium edges even higher, extending sustained rise since Q3 2023..· FOB NE Asia Group II N500 premium to gasoil stays unusually high but holds in a narrower range since end-Q3 2024.· More range-bound Group II N500 premium contrasts with still-rising Group I brightstock premium..· China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel prices extends gradual fall, contrasting with much firmer premium the same time a year earlier..· Premium falls at time of year when demand typically gets seasonal boost, supporting firmer market fundamentals.· Weaker premium suggests any seasonal boost is more muted this time..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil price extends recovery to highest in more than two months..· Rebounding premium reflects combination of lower gasoil price and rising outright N70 price.· Rebounding premium points to firm underlying demand fundamentals.· Rebounding premium facilitates arbitrage to move more supplies to India..· Europe’s Group I/II light-grade base oil premium to VGO holds steadier, contrasts with further fall in Group III 4cSt premium to VGO..· Europe Group III 4cSt premium to VGO falls to lowest since mid-2020, dips below Group II premium to VGO for first time since mid-2021.· Ongoing fall in Group III premium to VGO points to weaker supply-demand fundamentals vs Group I and Group II base oils..· US domestic Group II light-grade premium to VGO holds steady since mid-Jan 2025 after sustained slide since Sept 2024..· US Group III 4cSt premium to VGO also holds steady since mid-Jan 2025 after sustained slide since end-2022.· More stable price premiums could point to price differentials bottoming out.· More stable Group II and Group III price premiums contrasts with Europe, where Group III differentials continue to weaken.· Diverging trends point to weaker Group III fundamentals in Europe than in US..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 10 Feb.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 Feb.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 Feb
· Global base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export price differentials mostly much firmer than year-earlier levels.· Any extension of trend would point to margins bottoming out earlier this year than last year.· Any extension of trend would point to more muted pressure from surplus supply overhang at end-2024 and early-2025 compared with same time a year earlier..· FOB Asia base oils premium to Singapore gasoil holds firm after rebounding since mid-Jan 2025.· FOB Asia Group I brightstock premium edges even higher, extending sustained rise since Q3 2023..· FOB NE Asia Group II N500 premium to gasoil stays unusually high but holds in a narrower range since end-Q3 2024.· More range-bound Group II N500 premium contrasts with still-rising Group I brightstock premium..· China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel prices extends gradual fall, contrasting with much firmer premium the same time a year earlier..· Premium falls at time of year when demand typically gets seasonal boost, supporting firmer market fundamentals.· Weaker premium suggests any seasonal boost is more muted this time..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil price extends recovery to highest in more than two months..· Rebounding premium reflects combination of lower gasoil price and rising outright N70 price.· Rebounding premium points to firm underlying demand fundamentals.· Rebounding premium facilitates arbitrage to move more supplies to India..· Europe’s Group I/II light-grade base oil premium to VGO holds steadier, contrasts with further fall in Group III 4cSt premium to VGO..· Europe Group III 4cSt premium to VGO falls to lowest since mid-2020, dips below Group II premium to VGO for first time since mid-2021.· Ongoing fall in Group III premium to VGO points to weaker supply-demand fundamentals vs Group I and Group II base oils..· US domestic Group II light-grade premium to VGO holds steady since mid-Jan 2025 after sustained slide since Sept 2024..· US Group III 4cSt premium to VGO also holds steady since mid-Jan 2025 after sustained slide since end-2022.· More stable price premiums could point to price differentials bottoming out.· More stable Group II and Group III price premiums contrasts with Europe, where Group III differentials continue to weaken.· Diverging trends point to weaker Group III fundamentals in Europe than in US..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 10 Feb.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 Feb.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 Feb
