· Global base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, pointing to increasingly tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Firm margins that point to tight fundamentals coincide with signs of sufficient supply in most markets combined with cautious buying interest.· Any prolonged disconnect between strong margins and signs of more balanced fundamentals could magnify size of any subsequent price adjustment.· FOB Asia Group I base oils prices and Group II heavy-grade base oils prices extend rise relative to Singapore gasoil to multi-year high..· Surging base oils premium points to increasingly tight fundamentals, incentivizes refiners to maximise output.· Rising incentive to maximise output increases risk of disconnect between supply and demand, and growing risk of supply mismatch in response..· China’s domestic Group II N500 and Group I SN 150/SN 400 premium to Shandong diesel prices extends strong rise to multi-month high..· Rising premium points to firm fundamentals, incentivizes refiners to boost output.· Surge in Group I heavy-neutrals premium precedes closure of major Group I unit in China..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil price edges down, holds close to highest this year..· Firm premium keeps arbitrage to India open, incentivizes refiners to maximise output and keep very-light grade supplies in base oils market..· Europe’s base oils prices extend rise vs VGO prices, with Group I values at their highest since late-2022 or early 2023.· Europe’s Group II/III base oils price premium to VGO rises faster than Group I since early Aug 2024..· Group II/III premium rises faster even as supplies of premium-grade base oils stay readily available or increase vs Q2 2024..· US base oils price premium to VGO extends rise, with Group II light-grade premium climbing to highest in more than a year.· US Group III 4cSt premium to VGO also rises, to highest since H1 Aug 2024..· Narrow gap between Group II N100 and Group III 4cSt base oils premium boosts incentive for refiners to increase output of Group II more than Group III base oils..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 Sept.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 Sept
· Global base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, pointing to increasingly tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Firm margins that point to tight fundamentals coincide with signs of sufficient supply in most markets combined with cautious buying interest.· Any prolonged disconnect between strong margins and signs of more balanced fundamentals could magnify size of any subsequent price adjustment.· FOB Asia Group I base oils prices and Group II heavy-grade base oils prices extend rise relative to Singapore gasoil to multi-year high..· Surging base oils premium points to increasingly tight fundamentals, incentivizes refiners to maximise output.· Rising incentive to maximise output increases risk of disconnect between supply and demand, and growing risk of supply mismatch in response..· China’s domestic Group II N500 and Group I SN 150/SN 400 premium to Shandong diesel prices extends strong rise to multi-month high..· Rising premium points to firm fundamentals, incentivizes refiners to boost output.· Surge in Group I heavy-neutrals premium precedes closure of major Group I unit in China..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil price edges down, holds close to highest this year..· Firm premium keeps arbitrage to India open, incentivizes refiners to maximise output and keep very-light grade supplies in base oils market..· Europe’s base oils prices extend rise vs VGO prices, with Group I values at their highest since late-2022 or early 2023.· Europe’s Group II/III base oils price premium to VGO rises faster than Group I since early Aug 2024..· Group II/III premium rises faster even as supplies of premium-grade base oils stay readily available or increase vs Q2 2024..· US base oils price premium to VGO extends rise, with Group II light-grade premium climbing to highest in more than a year.· US Group III 4cSt premium to VGO also rises, to highest since H1 Aug 2024..· Narrow gap between Group II N100 and Group III 4cSt base oils premium boosts incentive for refiners to increase output of Group II more than Group III base oils..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 Sept.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 Sept
