· Global base oils prices rise sharply vs feedstock/gasoil prices.· Price premiums climb at time of year when they typically rise strongly in response to firmer supply-demand fundamentals.· Rise in price premiums in April 2025 coincides with slump in crude oil prices.· Rise in price premiums in response to firm supply-demand fundamentals would raise prospect of outright prices holding firm.· Rise in price premiums more in response to slump in crude oil prices would raise prospect of growing disconnect between prices and supply-demand fundamentals..· FOB Asia base oils prices surge versus Singapore gasoil price..· FOB Asia Group I SN 500, brightstock premium to Singapore gasoil rise to highest since 2021.· Group II N500 premium rises to highest in more than three years.· Group II N150 premium rises to seven-month high.· Surging base oils premiums point to unusually tight supply and strong demand even with some plant maintenance drawing to a close..· China’s Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel extends rise, while N500 holds steady at elevated level..· Relative strength of Group II light-grade prices vs Group II heavy grades since H2 Feb 2025 contrasts with ongoing strength of CFR India Group II heavy-grade prices vs light grades..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil surges close to highest since 2023..· Surging N70 premium points to increasingly strong demand for very-light grade base oils.· Surging N70 premium leaves wide open the arbitrage to move more shipments to India.· Surging N70 premium incentivizes overseas refiners to boost Group II base oils output.· Strong incentive to boost supply could compound size of any surplus volumes if demand fundamentals are weaker than surging N70 premium implies..· Europe’s Group I base oils prices rebound vs VGO prices, with brightstock premium climbing to highest since end-2022..· Rebounding base oils premiums mirror similar rise in premiums in Q2 2024, at time of year when supply-demand fundamentals often tighten.· Higher base oils premium this year outpaces year-earlier levels, pointing to even stronger fundamentals this year than last year.· Europe Group II light-grade price premium to VGO rebounds after recent dip..· Recent dip in Group II premium coincided with signs of healthy supply.· Reversal of that dip could reflect improvement in fundamentals or disconnect from fundamentals..· US Group II base oils premium to VGO jumps, breaking out of narrow range so far this year..· Surge in US Group II export price premium to VGO mirrors even larger rebound in price premium in Q2 2024.· Price premium rebounded in Q2 2024 following removal of surplus supplies in Q1 2024.· Surge in US export price premium to VGO in April 2025 could point to similar tightening of supply-demand fundamentals.· Any such tightening of supply-demand fundamentals would follow weaker-than-expected fundamentals until end-Q1 2025 even with round of plant maintenance..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April
· Global base oils prices rise sharply vs feedstock/gasoil prices.· Price premiums climb at time of year when they typically rise strongly in response to firmer supply-demand fundamentals.· Rise in price premiums in April 2025 coincides with slump in crude oil prices.· Rise in price premiums in response to firm supply-demand fundamentals would raise prospect of outright prices holding firm.· Rise in price premiums more in response to slump in crude oil prices would raise prospect of growing disconnect between prices and supply-demand fundamentals..· FOB Asia base oils prices surge versus Singapore gasoil price..· FOB Asia Group I SN 500, brightstock premium to Singapore gasoil rise to highest since 2021.· Group II N500 premium rises to highest in more than three years.· Group II N150 premium rises to seven-month high.· Surging base oils premiums point to unusually tight supply and strong demand even with some plant maintenance drawing to a close..· China’s Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel extends rise, while N500 holds steady at elevated level..· Relative strength of Group II light-grade prices vs Group II heavy grades since H2 Feb 2025 contrasts with ongoing strength of CFR India Group II heavy-grade prices vs light grades..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil surges close to highest since 2023..· Surging N70 premium points to increasingly strong demand for very-light grade base oils.· Surging N70 premium leaves wide open the arbitrage to move more shipments to India.· Surging N70 premium incentivizes overseas refiners to boost Group II base oils output.· Strong incentive to boost supply could compound size of any surplus volumes if demand fundamentals are weaker than surging N70 premium implies..· Europe’s Group I base oils prices rebound vs VGO prices, with brightstock premium climbing to highest since end-2022..· Rebounding base oils premiums mirror similar rise in premiums in Q2 2024, at time of year when supply-demand fundamentals often tighten.· Higher base oils premium this year outpaces year-earlier levels, pointing to even stronger fundamentals this year than last year.· Europe Group II light-grade price premium to VGO rebounds after recent dip..· Recent dip in Group II premium coincided with signs of healthy supply.· Reversal of that dip could reflect improvement in fundamentals or disconnect from fundamentals..· US Group II base oils premium to VGO jumps, breaking out of narrow range so far this year..· Surge in US Group II export price premium to VGO mirrors even larger rebound in price premium in Q2 2024.· Price premium rebounded in Q2 2024 following removal of surplus supplies in Q1 2024.· Surge in US export price premium to VGO in April 2025 could point to similar tightening of supply-demand fundamentals.· Any such tightening of supply-demand fundamentals would follow weaker-than-expected fundamentals until end-Q1 2025 even with round of plant maintenance..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April
