· Global base oils prices hold relatively steady/firm vs feedstock/competing prices, especially for time of year.· Steadier margins point to supply-demand fundamentals that are more balanced than usual for time of year.· Steadier margins curb pressure on refiners to cut output, increase risk of supply-build in early 2025..· FOB Asia Group I/II base oils price premium to Singapore gasoil holds unusually steady and firm for time of year..· FOB Asia Group I brightstock, Group II N500 premium to Singapore gasoil stays unusually high after sustained rise throughout the year.· Sustained upward trend of price premium points to persistent supply-tightness even with incentive for refiners to maximise output..· Domestic China Group II N500 premium to Shandong diesel prices rises to highest in more than three years..· Sustained rise in N500 premium contrasts with falling domestic Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel.· Sustained N500 price strength at elevated level points to still-insufficient supply even with incentive for refiners to maximise output.· Ongoing fall in domestic N150 premium contrasts with rebound in premium around this time a year ago..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil stays in narrow range it held in since end-Sept 2024..· Steady premium through Q4 2024 contrasts with volatility of price premium in Q4 2023.· Steady premium points to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals, with prices at levels that incentivize sufficient supply from overseas refiners and demand from domestic buyers..· Europe’s Group III 4cSt (low) premium to VGO extends fall to lowest since Q1 2021..· Falling Group III premium contrasts with steady Group II N150 premium to VGO.· Steady Group II N150 premium to VGO contrasts with weaker US domestic Group II N100/120 premium to VGO..· Relative strength of Europe Group II light-grade prices vs other grades and vs other regions could attract more supply to the region, boost demand for other grades in the region..· US Group II export price premium to VGO holds steady through most of Q4 2024 after falling in late-Q3 2024..· Steadier premium contrasts with surge, then slump in Group II premium during same period last year.· Last year’s Group II premium extended slide through most of Q1 2024 before recovering.· Steadier premium in Q4 2024 could point to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals vs same time last year.· Steadier premium curbs pressure on refiners to cut output at a time when demand faces seasonal slowdown, raising prospect of build-up of surplus supply..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 Dec.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 Dec
· Global base oils prices hold relatively steady/firm vs feedstock/competing prices, especially for time of year.· Steadier margins point to supply-demand fundamentals that are more balanced than usual for time of year.· Steadier margins curb pressure on refiners to cut output, increase risk of supply-build in early 2025..· FOB Asia Group I/II base oils price premium to Singapore gasoil holds unusually steady and firm for time of year..· FOB Asia Group I brightstock, Group II N500 premium to Singapore gasoil stays unusually high after sustained rise throughout the year.· Sustained upward trend of price premium points to persistent supply-tightness even with incentive for refiners to maximise output..· Domestic China Group II N500 premium to Shandong diesel prices rises to highest in more than three years..· Sustained rise in N500 premium contrasts with falling domestic Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel.· Sustained N500 price strength at elevated level points to still-insufficient supply even with incentive for refiners to maximise output.· Ongoing fall in domestic N150 premium contrasts with rebound in premium around this time a year ago..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil stays in narrow range it held in since end-Sept 2024..· Steady premium through Q4 2024 contrasts with volatility of price premium in Q4 2023.· Steady premium points to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals, with prices at levels that incentivize sufficient supply from overseas refiners and demand from domestic buyers..· Europe’s Group III 4cSt (low) premium to VGO extends fall to lowest since Q1 2021..· Falling Group III premium contrasts with steady Group II N150 premium to VGO.· Steady Group II N150 premium to VGO contrasts with weaker US domestic Group II N100/120 premium to VGO..· Relative strength of Europe Group II light-grade prices vs other grades and vs other regions could attract more supply to the region, boost demand for other grades in the region..· US Group II export price premium to VGO holds steady through most of Q4 2024 after falling in late-Q3 2024..· Steadier premium contrasts with surge, then slump in Group II premium during same period last year.· Last year’s Group II premium extended slide through most of Q1 2024 before recovering.· Steadier premium in Q4 2024 could point to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals vs same time last year.· Steadier premium curbs pressure on refiners to cut output at a time when demand faces seasonal slowdown, raising prospect of build-up of surplus supply..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 16 Dec.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 16 Dec
