· Group II heavy-grade price premium to Group II light grades stays wide or widens further globally..· Price-strength of Group II heavy grades points to persistently firm supply-demand fundamentals..· Price strength incentivizes refiners to boost output of the product to tap firm margins..· Sustained price-strength of Group II heavy grades suggests supply remains tight even with incentive to boost output..· Sustained price-strength of Group II heavy grades incentivizes blenders to seek alternative grades instead when such supplies are available.· CFR India Group II N500 premium to Group I SN 500 rises in Q4 2024 to highest level in more than two years..· Rising Group II heavy-grade premium boosts incentive for blenders to cut consumption of Group II base oils and maximise consumption of alternatives like Group I base oils..· India’s imports of Group II heavy grades accounts for little more than 70% of its total Group I and Group II heavy-grades imports in Oct 2024..· Share falls from close to 90% in Aug 2024 to close to lowest in at least three years, partly because of drop in Group II shipments from South Korea.· Share falls further as Indian buyers procure more Group I base oils instead..· Steady availability and competitive prices add to attraction of procuring more Group I base oils..· Switch away from Group II base oils in India in recent months contrasts with rising flow of Group II heavy grades to Pakistan from Asia and US throughout the year..· Rise in shipments partly reflects unusual surge in imports from US in 2024, with most of those supplies consisting of Group II heavy grades.· South Korea’s base oils exports to Pakistan rise strongly in Sept-Oct 2024..· South Korea’s exports to Pakistan rise even as plant maintenance slashes total exports in Sept 2024.· Large portion of supplies bound for Pakistan likely also consist of Group II heavy grades..· Ongoing global Group II heavy-grade price-strength points to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Any signs of more widespread or prolonged moves to switch away from Group II heavy grades would ease buying requirements.· Availability is also already sufficient for suppliers to move more shipments to markets like Pakistan.· Those supply and demand signals suggest the sustained Group II heavy-grade price strength is starting to succeed in rebalancing tight market fundamentals..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 Dec .Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 2 Dec.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 Dec
· Group II heavy-grade price premium to Group II light grades stays wide or widens further globally..· Price-strength of Group II heavy grades points to persistently firm supply-demand fundamentals..· Price strength incentivizes refiners to boost output of the product to tap firm margins..· Sustained price-strength of Group II heavy grades suggests supply remains tight even with incentive to boost output..· Sustained price-strength of Group II heavy grades incentivizes blenders to seek alternative grades instead when such supplies are available.· CFR India Group II N500 premium to Group I SN 500 rises in Q4 2024 to highest level in more than two years..· Rising Group II heavy-grade premium boosts incentive for blenders to cut consumption of Group II base oils and maximise consumption of alternatives like Group I base oils..· India’s imports of Group II heavy grades accounts for little more than 70% of its total Group I and Group II heavy-grades imports in Oct 2024..· Share falls from close to 90% in Aug 2024 to close to lowest in at least three years, partly because of drop in Group II shipments from South Korea.· Share falls further as Indian buyers procure more Group I base oils instead..· Steady availability and competitive prices add to attraction of procuring more Group I base oils..· Switch away from Group II base oils in India in recent months contrasts with rising flow of Group II heavy grades to Pakistan from Asia and US throughout the year..· Rise in shipments partly reflects unusual surge in imports from US in 2024, with most of those supplies consisting of Group II heavy grades.· South Korea’s base oils exports to Pakistan rise strongly in Sept-Oct 2024..· South Korea’s exports to Pakistan rise even as plant maintenance slashes total exports in Sept 2024.· Large portion of supplies bound for Pakistan likely also consist of Group II heavy grades..· Ongoing global Group II heavy-grade price-strength points to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Any signs of more widespread or prolonged moves to switch away from Group II heavy grades would ease buying requirements.· Availability is also already sufficient for suppliers to move more shipments to markets like Pakistan.· Those supply and demand signals suggest the sustained Group II heavy-grade price strength is starting to succeed in rebalancing tight market fundamentals..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 Dec .Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 2 Dec.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 Dec
