· Asia’s Group II base oils prices stay unusually firm vs US export prices so far this year..· Strength of Asia Group II prices curbs arbitrage flows from Asia to Americas so far this year..· Strength of Asia prices facilitates flows of base oils shipments from US to markets like UAE and India so far this year.· India’s base oils imports from US rise more than 30% in first eight months of 2025 from year-earlier levels..· Strength of Asia prices reflects tighter supply-demand fundamentals in Asia-Pacific region so far this year.· Those fundamentals could start to ease as shipments begin from new production capacity in Singapore that started up in Q3 2025..· Strength of Asia prices could start to face pressure if supply-tightness eases.· Base oils trade flows from Singapore already begin to see unusual changes during Sept 2025.· Unusual trade flows coincide with start-up of new unit in Singapore in Sept 2025.· Singapore’s base oils exports from domestic sources stay lower than usual in July-Aug 2025 before recovering in Sept 2025. .· Singapore’s exports in Sept 2025 include shipments from domestic sources to Middle East.· Singapore’s exports to Middle East during year to Aug 2025 consisted almost entirely of re-exports of shipments from other sources..· Singapore’s base oils exports in Sept 2025 also include unusual cargo to US..· Unusual cargo contrasts with swathe of shipments from US to Singapore over past year..· Change in trade flows could be a temporary blip.· Chage in trade flows is more likely a precursor of pick-up in shipments to other outlets following start-up of new unit in Singapore.· Change in trade flows highlights adjustments that global market is likely to face in coming months.· Those adjustments are likely to have repercussions, including easing Asia’s tighter supply fundamentals so far this year.· Asia’s tighter supply fundamentals so far this year supported firmer prices that kept shut the arbitrage to Americas.· Asia’s tighter supply fundamentals also facilitated US arbitrage flows to markets like India.· Improvement in Asia’s supply fundamentals raises prospect of change in those arbitrage dynamics so far this year..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 29 September.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 29 September.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 29 September.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
