· US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices..· US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia..· Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia..· Europe’s brightstock price rises to unusually high premium to other Group I grades and to VGO over past year..· Elevated price keeps shut the arbitrage from Europe to markets like India and southeast Asia.· Europe’s brightstock price-strength reflects increasingly tight supply that lags demand..· Last year’s closure of a Group I plant in Italy, combined with plant maintenance in the country in Q1 2025, compounds Europe’s tight supply.· Italy’s base oils output falls in Feb 2025 to second-lowest level since H1 2023, reflecting that dynamic. .· Asia’s export Group I brightstock price surges vs other Group I grades and vs Singapore gasoil over past year..· Elevated brightstock price keeps shut the arbitrage to outlets like Middle East..· Asia’s brightstock price-strength reflects increasingly tight supply following plant closures in Japan and China in recent years.· Slump in Japan’s base exports gathers pace from H2 2023, reflecting drop in supply..· US brightstock price rises vs other Group I grades and vs VGO even without any Group I plant closures in the country.· US brightstock price instead shows signs of getting support from tight supply in other markets.· US brightstock price discount to domestic Europe price grows to widest level since end-2022.· US brightstock price premium to FOB Asia cargo price falls in April 2025 to lowest level in more than four years..· Weaker US brightstock price facilitates arbitrage opportunities to move shipments to markets like Europe, Africa and India.· Weaker price levels and more frequent arbitrage shipments point to persistent surplus volumes in US market..· US base oils exports from district of Philadelphia trend higher from 2022, contrasting with lower supplies in Japan and Europe..· Higher export volumes could reflect incentive for refiners to boost brightstock production in response to higher prices and tighter supply in other markets.· Higher export volumes could also reflect weaker US demand.· Either way, prices point to growing contrast between brightstock fundamentals in US and fundamentals in Europe and Asia..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 April
· US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices..· US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia..· Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia..· Europe’s brightstock price rises to unusually high premium to other Group I grades and to VGO over past year..· Elevated price keeps shut the arbitrage from Europe to markets like India and southeast Asia.· Europe’s brightstock price-strength reflects increasingly tight supply that lags demand..· Last year’s closure of a Group I plant in Italy, combined with plant maintenance in the country in Q1 2025, compounds Europe’s tight supply.· Italy’s base oils output falls in Feb 2025 to second-lowest level since H1 2023, reflecting that dynamic. .· Asia’s export Group I brightstock price surges vs other Group I grades and vs Singapore gasoil over past year..· Elevated brightstock price keeps shut the arbitrage to outlets like Middle East..· Asia’s brightstock price-strength reflects increasingly tight supply following plant closures in Japan and China in recent years.· Slump in Japan’s base exports gathers pace from H2 2023, reflecting drop in supply..· US brightstock price rises vs other Group I grades and vs VGO even without any Group I plant closures in the country.· US brightstock price instead shows signs of getting support from tight supply in other markets.· US brightstock price discount to domestic Europe price grows to widest level since end-2022.· US brightstock price premium to FOB Asia cargo price falls in April 2025 to lowest level in more than four years..· Weaker US brightstock price facilitates arbitrage opportunities to move shipments to markets like Europe, Africa and India.· Weaker price levels and more frequent arbitrage shipments point to persistent surplus volumes in US market..· US base oils exports from district of Philadelphia trend higher from 2022, contrasting with lower supplies in Japan and Europe..· Higher export volumes could reflect incentive for refiners to boost brightstock production in response to higher prices and tighter supply in other markets.· Higher export volumes could also reflect weaker US demand.· Either way, prices point to growing contrast between brightstock fundamentals in US and fundamentals in Europe and Asia..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 April
