· India’s imported Group II heavy-grade base oils cargo price-premium to FOB prices in US and Asia holds firm and in relatively narrow range in recent weeks..· Price-spread stays in narrow range as CFR India cargo price tracks lower FOB Asia/US Gulf coast prices.· CFR India cargo price falls amid pick-up in availability of supplies, boosting buyers’ choice..· India could attract additional offers of supplies from Asia after recent surge in shipments to Middle East leaves that market with more elevated stocks..· More elevated stocks could curb immediate demand from Middle East for additional supplies.· India could attract additional offers of supplies from US despite even more competitive prices in Europe..· Rise in US exports to India in June 2025, and drop in shipments to Europe, could reflect strategy of targeting India with spot shipments and Europe with term shipments..· India’s imported Group I heavy-neutrals base oils cargo price-premium to FOB Asia price steadies in recent weeks after surging in July 2025. · India’s imported Group I heavy-neutrals base oils cargo price-discount to FOB Europe prices continues to get narrower..· CFR India price-premium vs FOB Asia price steadies amid pick-up in availability of supplies from growing number of markets, boosting buyers’ choice.· CFR India price-discount to FOB Europe price narrows amid pick-up in availability of supplies in Europe, boosting need to attract more buying interest..· Competition to move more surplus supplies to outlets like India puts growing pressure on export prices relative to domestic prices in Asia, Europe and US.· Premium of ex-tank Singapore Group II N500 price to FOB Asia cargo price extends rise in Aug 2025 to highest level since Q1 2024..· Premium of Europe domestic Group I price to FOB Europe export prices rises in H2 Aug 2025, especially for light grades. .· Widening domestic price-premium to export prices adds to signs of increasing surplus volumes globally and of growing competition for overseas outlets to absorb the supplies.· Signs of increasing surplus volumes and growing competition for outlets coincide with still-firm global base oils margins that incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.· Firm base oils margins suggest that volume of surplus supply remains manageable for now.· Any extension of increasing surplus supply, combined with firm margins and high output, raises risk of growing challenge of absorbing the additional volumes. .Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 1 September.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 1 September
