· US base oils export price discount to Asia base oils prices stays wide so far this year..· Wide price discount facilitates shipment of surplus supplies to markets like India..· US base oils and lube exports to India surge in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic..· Those kinds of arbitrage shipments could face growing complications in coming months in face of unusually extreme crude oil price volatility.· Any slowdown in such arbitrage shipments could complicate removal of surplus supplies from US market.· Any such slowdown in arbitrage shipments would have fewer repercussions for markets like India.· CFR India Group II N500 price premium to US export price widens since Q4 2024. .· Widening premium coincides with crude oil/gasoil prices holding in relatively narrow range from then until late-Q1 2025.· Rangebound crude oil/gasoil prices leave supply-demand fundamentals the key factors influencing base oils prices.· Rangebound crude oil/gasoil prices duly facilitate shipments involving extended time period between procurement and delivery of the supplies.· Wide CFR India Group II price premium to US export prices this year coincides with heavy round of plant maintenance work in Asia and peak-demand period in India..· Rise in US arbitrage shipments to India helps to cushion impact of plant maintenance work, enable blenders to replenish depleted stocks in early Q2 2025.· India’s buying interest in supplies from US could now start to wane in face of weaker fundamentals.· Unusually volatile crude/gasoil prices in April 2025 could magnify slowdown in demand. · India’s lube demand typically falls in Q2 from Q1, curbing urgency to replenish stocks..· Swathe of plant maintenance work in Asia set to end in April-May 2025, boosting regional supply.· Prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals coincides with slump in crude oil and oil products prices in April 2025..· Weaker fundamentals curb need for buyers in India to line up additional arbitrage shipments from more distant markets.· Volatile crude/gasoil prices magnify risk of locking in prices for shipments with extended time gap between procurement and delivery of the supplies.· Any slowdown in Asia demand for surplus supplies from US increases that market’s reliance on domestic demand and on logistically-closer outlets like Mexico.· US domestic demand was weaker than usual so far this year even before this month's imposition of tariffs on global imports.· Growing reliance on Mexico exposes any surplus supplies to risk of additional tariff-related complications and to pressure from lower heating oil prices.· Persistent need to line up outlets for surplus US base oils supply was already challenging.· Tariffs and volatile crude oil prices magnify the challenge..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April
· US base oils export price discount to Asia base oils prices stays wide so far this year..· Wide price discount facilitates shipment of surplus supplies to markets like India..· US base oils and lube exports to India surge in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic..· Those kinds of arbitrage shipments could face growing complications in coming months in face of unusually extreme crude oil price volatility.· Any slowdown in such arbitrage shipments could complicate removal of surplus supplies from US market.· Any such slowdown in arbitrage shipments would have fewer repercussions for markets like India.· CFR India Group II N500 price premium to US export price widens since Q4 2024. .· Widening premium coincides with crude oil/gasoil prices holding in relatively narrow range from then until late-Q1 2025.· Rangebound crude oil/gasoil prices leave supply-demand fundamentals the key factors influencing base oils prices.· Rangebound crude oil/gasoil prices duly facilitate shipments involving extended time period between procurement and delivery of the supplies.· Wide CFR India Group II price premium to US export prices this year coincides with heavy round of plant maintenance work in Asia and peak-demand period in India..· Rise in US arbitrage shipments to India helps to cushion impact of plant maintenance work, enable blenders to replenish depleted stocks in early Q2 2025.· India’s buying interest in supplies from US could now start to wane in face of weaker fundamentals.· Unusually volatile crude/gasoil prices in April 2025 could magnify slowdown in demand. · India’s lube demand typically falls in Q2 from Q1, curbing urgency to replenish stocks..· Swathe of plant maintenance work in Asia set to end in April-May 2025, boosting regional supply.· Prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals coincides with slump in crude oil and oil products prices in April 2025..· Weaker fundamentals curb need for buyers in India to line up additional arbitrage shipments from more distant markets.· Volatile crude/gasoil prices magnify risk of locking in prices for shipments with extended time gap between procurement and delivery of the supplies.· Any slowdown in Asia demand for surplus supplies from US increases that market’s reliance on domestic demand and on logistically-closer outlets like Mexico.· US domestic demand was weaker than usual so far this year even before this month's imposition of tariffs on global imports.· Growing reliance on Mexico exposes any surplus supplies to risk of additional tariff-related complications and to pressure from lower heating oil prices.· Persistent need to line up outlets for surplus US base oils supply was already challenging.· Tariffs and volatile crude oil prices magnify the challenge..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April
