Global base oils – the week ahead

- Global diesel premiums to crude remain unusually high on concern about tightening supply of the key motor fuel

- Light-grade base oils remain unusually weak relative to diesel

- India raised retail diesel prices last week for first time since November

- Even with higher retail diesel price, its premium to crude extends slide

- Cfr India very-light grade premium to diesel holds at weakest in more than two years

- Lube consumption shows signs of weakness in markets like Europe, South America, China

- Trend suggests term buyers with regional supplies likely to be less affected than buyers reliant on imports of spot shipments

- Bright stock prices show more signs of recovery versus other grades

- Group II heavy grades show signs of strengthening versus lighter grades

- Domestic Chinese prices lag rise in overseas prices. Trend complicates arbitrage, boosts attraction of moving overseas supplies to other markets