Global base oils – the week ahead: Demand

· Lube demand slow or slowing in growing number of markets as economies slow, energy costs rise.

· Ongoing lockdowns in China likely to keep cap on domestic lube demand. The February 2020 lockdown in China postponed rather than cancelled the subsequent seasonal rise in demand.

· Auto sales slowing in growing number of markets – China, Japan, France, Brazil.

· Indian lube demand likely to face slowdown after seasonal peak in Q1 2022.

· Volatile crude prices prompt some buyers to hold off.

· Base oil demand remains firmer than lube demand as buyers seek to lock in supplies.

· Demand gets further boost as plant maintenance prompts refiners to seek replenishment volumes from other sources to top up their own supply.

· South Korea takes unusual delivery of large volume of base oils from US in March. Volume was highest since 1H 2017.

· Unusual flows follow rare South Korean imports of large cargo from Spain in February.

· Shipments from US, Spain coincide with slump in South Korean imports from Indonesia in March.