· Diesel premium to crude edges up, well down from recent highs, well up from pre-February levels.· China Shandong diesel premium to crude extends rise to highest in more than a year..· India retail diesel premium to crude extends rise – reflecting unchanged diesel price since May.· Firm China/India diesel prices incentivize refiners to produce more middle distillates.· Prospect of rise in China export quotas for diesel in Q4 could help counter impact of expected drop in oil products supplies from Russia from December.· Larger-than-expected diesel supplies could pressure diesel premium to crude.· Refinery run rates hold firm in US, Japan.· Unusually low Chinese base oils imports continue to force Asia producers to redirect large volumes to other markets.· Surge in China’s base oils exports in August adds to regional surplus..· South Korea moves record volumes of base oils to Latin America in August.· Firmer Asia-Pacific base oils values vs diesel could incentivize higher run rates/reversal of run-cuts, eroding benefit of recent clear-out of surplus supplies.· Latin America absorbs supplies from Asia-Pacific, Mideast Gulf.· US plant maintenance work over coming months likely to curb size of any supply overhang.· US still likely to have surplus volumes to clear after so far avoiding any major weather-related supply disruptions.· Europe base oils supply already showed signs of rising in July, with pick-up in shipments to West Africa, Latin America. Trend likely to have continued since then amid slowing European demand.· Rising surplus supplies increase need to open arbitrage to outlets like Africa.· Turkey less attractive as outlet as rising supplies of Russian base oils cover more of its domestic requirements.· Rising arbitrage shipments to Latin America, while demand slows, raise prospect of lower demand from more regular suppliers.· Singapore’s base oils exports fall over past week to lowest weekly volume in more than six months.· Singapore’s weekly base oils exports from domestic sources fall below levels in May, when some plant maintenance took place..· Singapore takes delivery of more cargoes from China over past week, adding to wave of shipments over past two months.· Singapore’s four-week average imports volume falls to lowest over past week in more than six months.· Trend reflects slump in shipments from Mideast Gulf and slowdown in flows from Japan.· Swathe of large shipments load from Taiwan during September.· Taiwan’s September shipments rise to highest in months.· Cargo with around 20,000t of Group II base oils from Taiwan set to reach India in coming days.· Group I base oil plant in Japan set for imminent closure.· Closure likely to trigger change in trade flows as supply from Japan falls.· Closure coincides with scheduled plant maintenance in Japan.· Plant shutdowns in Thailand in Q4 2022 set to cut surplus Group I cargo availability from that market.· Large cargo of premium-grade base oils from Spain heads to West Africa.· Kenya set to take delivery of no shipments in September, after arrival of unusually large volume in August..Global base oils – week of Sep 26: Demand outlook
