· Buyers face prospect of managing seasonal and economic slowdown simultaneously.· Uncertainty/weak demand boosts attraction of procuring smaller volumes, paying premium for smaller volumes to limit exposure.· US dollar weakens after lower-than-expected US inflation in October.· Weaker US dollar and possibility of smaller-than-expected rise in interest rates raise prospect of firmer commodities prices, reviving inflation pressures.· US weekly gasoline demand falls last week for 32nd straight week..· Blenders, refiners likely to focus on working down stocks as end-user demand slows at year-end.· Brazil’s October auto sales rise for fourth month, share of diesel/mogas-powered vehicles falls.· Brazil’s demand for overseas base oils supplies likely to remain steady amid more balanced domestic supply.· Firm Americas lube demand contrasts with sustained drop in European demand..· European Commission expects Eurozone inflation to last for longer, economy to contract in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023.· UK’s economy already contracts in Q3, likely starting prolonged recession.· UK faces prospect of higher taxes to plug hole in public finances, adding to pressure on economic growth.· Signs of reviving base oils demand in Nigeria as shipments from Europe, US head for West Africa.· Asia-Pacific lube demand mixed – firm in southeast Asia, India, weak in China.· Buyers likely to rely on term supplies, limit stock building until comfortable prices have bottomed out.· Seasonal rise in Chinese demand in recent months more muted than usual.· China’s low base oils supply would struggle to cover a sudden pick-up in demand.· China’s relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions raises expectation of pick-up in economic activity.· Relaxation of restrictions coincides with surge in Covid cases in China.· Chinese blenders likely to remain cautious because of concern about more lockdowns and until pick-up in activity materializes.· China’s October base oils imports likely stayed relatively low.· China’s low October base oils output, low imports highlight muted seasonal pick-up in demand.· Chinese blenders show signs of holding off pre-lunar new year stock replenishment until early next year.· Trend raises prospect of seasonal rise in demand during smaller time period.· China’s car sales show signs of slipping in early November from year-earlier levels.· Philippines’ Q3 economic growth exceeds expectations on strong household consumption.· Trend highlights strong economic performance of southeast Asian markets.· India’s October lube demand rises to seven-month high, falls from year-earlier levels..· India’s strong lube consumption likely to boost demand for domestic/overseas base oils.· India’s October automobile sales rise strongly as festival season boosts demand.· India’s October car, tractor, two-wheeler, commercial vehicle sales exceed October 2019 levels.· India’s demand for very light grade base oils likely to stay muted..Global base oils – week of Nov 7: Supply outlook
· Buyers face prospect of managing seasonal and economic slowdown simultaneously.· Uncertainty/weak demand boosts attraction of procuring smaller volumes, paying premium for smaller volumes to limit exposure.· US dollar weakens after lower-than-expected US inflation in October.· Weaker US dollar and possibility of smaller-than-expected rise in interest rates raise prospect of firmer commodities prices, reviving inflation pressures.· US weekly gasoline demand falls last week for 32nd straight week..· Blenders, refiners likely to focus on working down stocks as end-user demand slows at year-end.· Brazil’s October auto sales rise for fourth month, share of diesel/mogas-powered vehicles falls.· Brazil’s demand for overseas base oils supplies likely to remain steady amid more balanced domestic supply.· Firm Americas lube demand contrasts with sustained drop in European demand..· European Commission expects Eurozone inflation to last for longer, economy to contract in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023.· UK’s economy already contracts in Q3, likely starting prolonged recession.· UK faces prospect of higher taxes to plug hole in public finances, adding to pressure on economic growth.· Signs of reviving base oils demand in Nigeria as shipments from Europe, US head for West Africa.· Asia-Pacific lube demand mixed – firm in southeast Asia, India, weak in China.· Buyers likely to rely on term supplies, limit stock building until comfortable prices have bottomed out.· Seasonal rise in Chinese demand in recent months more muted than usual.· China’s low base oils supply would struggle to cover a sudden pick-up in demand.· China’s relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions raises expectation of pick-up in economic activity.· Relaxation of restrictions coincides with surge in Covid cases in China.· Chinese blenders likely to remain cautious because of concern about more lockdowns and until pick-up in activity materializes.· China’s October base oils imports likely stayed relatively low.· China’s low October base oils output, low imports highlight muted seasonal pick-up in demand.· Chinese blenders show signs of holding off pre-lunar new year stock replenishment until early next year.· Trend raises prospect of seasonal rise in demand during smaller time period.· China’s car sales show signs of slipping in early November from year-earlier levels.· Philippines’ Q3 economic growth exceeds expectations on strong household consumption.· Trend highlights strong economic performance of southeast Asian markets.· India’s October lube demand rises to seven-month high, falls from year-earlier levels..· India’s strong lube consumption likely to boost demand for domestic/overseas base oils.· India’s October automobile sales rise strongly as festival season boosts demand.· India’s October car, tractor, two-wheeler, commercial vehicle sales exceed October 2019 levels.· India’s demand for very light grade base oils likely to stay muted..Global base oils – week of Nov 7: Supply outlook
