Global base oils – week of Oct 3: Supply outlook

·        Outright crude/diesel prices rise on expectations of OPEC+ crude supply cut.

·        Diesel premium to crude stays elevated, even if well down from peak levels in recent months.

·        China Shandong province diesel premium to crude stays unusually high, close to highest in more than a year, supported by seasonal rise in demand from agricultural, construction sectors.

·        India’s retail diesel premium to crude holds firm, reflecting unchanged diesel prices since May and lower crude since then.

·        US, Japan refinery run rates fell sharply last week, China Shandong refinery run rates stay lower.

·        US plant maintenance likely to limit extent of surplus supplies over coming weeks.

·        Surplus supplies still likely amid seasonal slowdown in demand, avoidance of weather-related disruptions.

·        US plant maintenance already cuts domestic production in July.

·        Hurricane Ian causes widespread destruction in Florida, misses key US Gulf coast base oils production regions of Louisiana, Texas.

·        No more major storms forecast for now.

·        Arbitrage shipments from Mideast Gulf move to/reach Argentina.

·        European supply shows more signs of rising.

·        Netherlands’ base oils supply extends rebound in July.

·        UK’s base oils supply rises in July to five-month high.

·        European surplus supplies face competition for arbitrage outlets.

·        Asia-Pacific supply surplus persists.

·        Thailand’s August base oils supply rises to three-month high, ahead of plant maintenance in Q4.

·        China’s September base oils run rates stay unusually low.

·        Japan’s August base oils output falls to three-month low.

·        Japan’s output set to fall further because of plant maintenance, plant closure.

·        Singapore’s base oils exports over past week rise to highest in two months.

·        Singapore’s base oils exports in four weeks to end-September edge down slightly from end-August levels, stay rangebound.

·        Singapore’s base oils exports to India and China fall in four weeks to end-September.

·        Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia hold firm in four weeks to end-September.

·        Singapore’s base oils imports fall in four weeks to end-September vs end-August.

·        Singapore takes delivery of another large shipment from China over past week.

·        Singapore takes delivery of unusually large cargo from Taiwan in past week.

·        Singapore takes delivery of larger-than-usual cargo from Saudi Arabia over past week.

·        Taiwan’s September base oil cargo shipments surge to more than 50,000t, highest in months.

·        Surge in Taiwan’ base oils shipments extends into early October.

·        Large shipment of light and heavy grades from Taiwan set to reach India in a week.

·        Kenya takes delivery of no cargoes in September or early October.