· Crude oil prices extend gradual rise, holding close to highest since Oct 2023 amid signs of firmer-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals.· Diesel premium to crude oil falls to lowest since July 2023.· Disconnect between firm crude oil prices and lagging gasoil prices could impact sustainability of recent crude-price strength.· Base oils demand could face seasonal pick-up in Europe and US over coming weeks, and slowdown in Asia.· Dynamic would contrast with firmer demand in Asia and seasonally-weak demand in Europe and US in recent months.· Current base oils prices in the three regions reflect supply-demand trends in recent months, rather than that new dynamic.· Asia’s base oils demand could start to ease as seasonal dip in lube consumption curbs urgency to buy.· China’s demand for regional base oils supplies likely to stay muted amid cautious buying, sufficient domestic supply.· India’s base oils demand could start to ease as shipments from US and South Korea help to replenish stocks.· Europe’s higher export prices point to firmer supply-demand fundamentals for overseas market.· Trend could support pick-up in regional demand as buyers focus on locking in supplies that could otherwise move into the export market.· Higher US posted prices and export prices could raise expectations of rise in domestic prices, and subsequent pick-up in demand.· US export prices remain unusually weak vs domestic prices and feedstock costs even with recent rise in outright prices.· US posted prices remain unusually weak vs feedstock costs, pointing to still-weak supply-demand fundamentals.· Weak supply-demand fundamentals provide buyers with leverage to maintain low stocks..Global base oils margins outlook - week of April 1.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of April 1
· Crude oil prices extend gradual rise, holding close to highest since Oct 2023 amid signs of firmer-than-expected supply-demand fundamentals.· Diesel premium to crude oil falls to lowest since July 2023.· Disconnect between firm crude oil prices and lagging gasoil prices could impact sustainability of recent crude-price strength.· Base oils demand could face seasonal pick-up in Europe and US over coming weeks, and slowdown in Asia.· Dynamic would contrast with firmer demand in Asia and seasonally-weak demand in Europe and US in recent months.· Current base oils prices in the three regions reflect supply-demand trends in recent months, rather than that new dynamic.· Asia’s base oils demand could start to ease as seasonal dip in lube consumption curbs urgency to buy.· China’s demand for regional base oils supplies likely to stay muted amid cautious buying, sufficient domestic supply.· India’s base oils demand could start to ease as shipments from US and South Korea help to replenish stocks.· Europe’s higher export prices point to firmer supply-demand fundamentals for overseas market.· Trend could support pick-up in regional demand as buyers focus on locking in supplies that could otherwise move into the export market.· Higher US posted prices and export prices could raise expectations of rise in domestic prices, and subsequent pick-up in demand.· US export prices remain unusually weak vs domestic prices and feedstock costs even with recent rise in outright prices.· US posted prices remain unusually weak vs feedstock costs, pointing to still-weak supply-demand fundamentals.· Weak supply-demand fundamentals provide buyers with leverage to maintain low stocks..Global base oils margins outlook - week of April 1.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of April 1
