· Global crude oil prices hold in narrow, lower range since mid-Oct 2024, with OPEC+ facing challenge of when to adjust output plans amid expectations of growing crude supply surplus in 2025.· Diesel premium to crude oil holds relatively steady at lower level since start of Q2 2024.· Weaker crude oil and diesel prices add to attraction of sustaining firmer output of products with higher margins, such as base oils.· Global base oils demand could start to focus soon on typical pick-up in consumption at start of new year.· Expectations of healthy availability of supply give buyers the leverage to hold off for longer before securing supplies to meet pick-up in consumption.· Expectations that outright lube consumption growth likely to stay weak in most markets early next year add to attraction of securing smaller volumes and maintaining lower stocks.· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay muted amid sufficient supplies, seasonal slowdown in consumption.· China’s weak base oils demand counters impact of drop in domestic supply, curbing need for additional volumes from overseas markets.· India’s demand likely to focus on securing sufficient volumes to meet immediate requirements.· Buyers likely to hold off building larger stocks in anticipation of improving availability of supply, and prices that reflect those changing fundamentals. · Europe’s base oils demand could see more muted seasonal pick-up early next year.· Healthy availability of supply and shrinking lube consumption incentivize buyers to top up inventories later and with smaller volumes.· US demand could get boost from moves to replenish lower stocks early next year.· Widening gap between US spot and posted prices could prompt buyers to procure smaller-than-usual volumes amid concern about further price adjustments.· Latin America’s base oils demand could get boost if supply-demand fundamentals remain more balanced during Q4 2024.· Overseas demand for supplies from US and Europe could ease in short-term as lower export prices raise prospect of growing competition between suppliers.· Demand could then rise more strongly once buyers are confident that they face less exposure to any further price adjustments..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 Dec .Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 Dec.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 Dec
· Global crude oil prices hold in narrow, lower range since mid-Oct 2024, with OPEC+ facing challenge of when to adjust output plans amid expectations of growing crude supply surplus in 2025.· Diesel premium to crude oil holds relatively steady at lower level since start of Q2 2024.· Weaker crude oil and diesel prices add to attraction of sustaining firmer output of products with higher margins, such as base oils.· Global base oils demand could start to focus soon on typical pick-up in consumption at start of new year.· Expectations of healthy availability of supply give buyers the leverage to hold off for longer before securing supplies to meet pick-up in consumption.· Expectations that outright lube consumption growth likely to stay weak in most markets early next year add to attraction of securing smaller volumes and maintaining lower stocks.· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay muted amid sufficient supplies, seasonal slowdown in consumption.· China’s weak base oils demand counters impact of drop in domestic supply, curbing need for additional volumes from overseas markets.· India’s demand likely to focus on securing sufficient volumes to meet immediate requirements.· Buyers likely to hold off building larger stocks in anticipation of improving availability of supply, and prices that reflect those changing fundamentals. · Europe’s base oils demand could see more muted seasonal pick-up early next year.· Healthy availability of supply and shrinking lube consumption incentivize buyers to top up inventories later and with smaller volumes.· US demand could get boost from moves to replenish lower stocks early next year.· Widening gap between US spot and posted prices could prompt buyers to procure smaller-than-usual volumes amid concern about further price adjustments.· Latin America’s base oils demand could get boost if supply-demand fundamentals remain more balanced during Q4 2024.· Overseas demand for supplies from US and Europe could ease in short-term as lower export prices raise prospect of growing competition between suppliers.· Demand could then rise more strongly once buyers are confident that they face less exposure to any further price adjustments..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 2 Dec .Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 2 Dec.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 2 Dec
