· Crude oil prices extend rise, show signs of new ‘bottom’ around $78/bl, which had previously been top of $72-78/bl range in May-June.· Crude oil prices get support from weaker US dollar and expectations that US interest rates are close to peaking following likely further rise in rates this week.· US interest rates expected to remain at elevated levels at least through rest of this year even if rate-increases pause.· Europe’s central bank expected to raise interest rates this week. Easing inflation concerns similarly raise expectations that rates are close to peaking.· Lower-than-expected UK inflation in June adds to same dynamic.· Unexpectedly weak Chinese economic growth in recent months triggers additional stimulus measures, with more expected.· Global base oils surplus in 2023 reflects more the weakness of lube demand, with supply holding similar to year-earlier levels in first four months of year.· Trend suggests firmer lube and base oils demand would generate a price response if supply stays steady.· Base oils demand likely to be firmer in coming weeks even if lube demand stays weaker than usual as blenders replenish lower stocks more frequently and prepare for seasonal pick-up in demand at end-Q3 2023..Global base oils - week of July 24: Price outlook - margins
· Crude oil prices extend rise, show signs of new ‘bottom’ around $78/bl, which had previously been top of $72-78/bl range in May-June.· Crude oil prices get support from weaker US dollar and expectations that US interest rates are close to peaking following likely further rise in rates this week.· US interest rates expected to remain at elevated levels at least through rest of this year even if rate-increases pause.· Europe’s central bank expected to raise interest rates this week. Easing inflation concerns similarly raise expectations that rates are close to peaking.· Lower-than-expected UK inflation in June adds to same dynamic.· Unexpectedly weak Chinese economic growth in recent months triggers additional stimulus measures, with more expected.· Global base oils surplus in 2023 reflects more the weakness of lube demand, with supply holding similar to year-earlier levels in first four months of year.· Trend suggests firmer lube and base oils demand would generate a price response if supply stays steady.· Base oils demand likely to be firmer in coming weeks even if lube demand stays weaker than usual as blenders replenish lower stocks more frequently and prepare for seasonal pick-up in demand at end-Q3 2023..Global base oils - week of July 24: Price outlook - margins
