· Global crude oil prices reverse some of their recent gains as expectations of weakening supply-demand fundamentals balance out ongoing geopolitical concerns in Middle East.· Diesel premium to crude oil holds close to lowest in more than a year.· Recent crude price volatility has little impact on demand at a time when consumption faces seasonal slowdown and surplus supply likely to rise.· Demand likely to stay muted even if supply-surplus in Q4 2024 is smaller than expected.· Asia’s base oils demand could get support from tighter supply because of ongoing plant maintenance work.· Demand could get further support from prospect of steadier prices in Asia than in other regions.· Arbitrage from US to Asia stays hard to work, curbing alternative supply sources for buyers.· China’s demand shows signs of waning for overseas supplies, holding steadier for domestic supplies.· Europe’s base oils demand likely to stay muted amid weak finished lube consumption and signs of sufficient availability of all base oils grades.· Overseas demand for European supplies could improve if export prices extend recent downward trend.· US base oils demand set to slow as buyers work down inventories.· Trend boosts importance of pick-up in overseas demand to absorb likely rise in surplus US supplies in coming months.· Ongoing fall in US export prices starts to increase feasibility of such a pick-up in demand.· Latin America’s base oils demand could fall more than expected if lube consumption extends fall from year-earlier levels, magnifying impact of seasonal slowdown in consumption.
· Global crude oil prices reverse some of their recent gains as expectations of weakening supply-demand fundamentals balance out ongoing geopolitical concerns in Middle East.· Diesel premium to crude oil holds close to lowest in more than a year.· Recent crude price volatility has little impact on demand at a time when consumption faces seasonal slowdown and surplus supply likely to rise.· Demand likely to stay muted even if supply-surplus in Q4 2024 is smaller than expected.· Asia’s base oils demand could get support from tighter supply because of ongoing plant maintenance work.· Demand could get further support from prospect of steadier prices in Asia than in other regions.· Arbitrage from US to Asia stays hard to work, curbing alternative supply sources for buyers.· China’s demand shows signs of waning for overseas supplies, holding steadier for domestic supplies.· Europe’s base oils demand likely to stay muted amid weak finished lube consumption and signs of sufficient availability of all base oils grades.· Overseas demand for European supplies could improve if export prices extend recent downward trend.· US base oils demand set to slow as buyers work down inventories.· Trend boosts importance of pick-up in overseas demand to absorb likely rise in surplus US supplies in coming months.· Ongoing fall in US export prices starts to increase feasibility of such a pick-up in demand.· Latin America’s base oils demand could fall more than expected if lube consumption extends fall from year-earlier levels, magnifying impact of seasonal slowdown in consumption.
