· Crude oil prices stay higher as concern about disruptions to supply counter expectations of slower demand growth this year.· Diesel premium to crude oil holds firm even as it eases from early-Feb 2024 levels.· Prospect of US interest rates staying higher for longer likely to weigh on economic growth/recovery prospects.· Higher borrowing costs sustain incentive for blenders to maintain low stocks.· Widening gap between base oils prices in different regions could spur demand for supplies to take advantage of less frequent arbitrage opportunities.· Base oils demand in Asia-Pacific could get support from signs of more balanced supply, steady lube demand in southeast Asia and steady-to-firm prices.· Chinese demand set to revive after lull in activity so far this month because of lunar new year holidays.· Chinese demand was firmer in Jan 2024 amid cautious round of stock-building.· Strength of seasonal pick-up in lube demand set to determine speed at which Chinese buyers will need to replenish their stocks. · India’s plentiful base oils supplies could curb demand unless price offers are at competitive levels.· Europe’s base oils demand could stay muted as still-wide gap between domestic and export prices raises concern about further downward price pressure.· Expectations of sufficient availability add to blenders’ preference to maintain low stocks.· Gap widens further between US domestic and export prices, and between US posted prices and US domestic prices.· Wide gap could prompt domestic US buyers to hold back in anticipation of lower prices.· Any such moves could delay or dampen strength of expected seasonal pick-up in demand over coming weeks.· Latin America’s base oils demand could face pressure from slowdown in finished lube demand, rise in regional supply..Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Price outlook - margins.Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Price outlook - arbitrage
· Crude oil prices stay higher as concern about disruptions to supply counter expectations of slower demand growth this year.· Diesel premium to crude oil holds firm even as it eases from early-Feb 2024 levels.· Prospect of US interest rates staying higher for longer likely to weigh on economic growth/recovery prospects.· Higher borrowing costs sustain incentive for blenders to maintain low stocks.· Widening gap between base oils prices in different regions could spur demand for supplies to take advantage of less frequent arbitrage opportunities.· Base oils demand in Asia-Pacific could get support from signs of more balanced supply, steady lube demand in southeast Asia and steady-to-firm prices.· Chinese demand set to revive after lull in activity so far this month because of lunar new year holidays.· Chinese demand was firmer in Jan 2024 amid cautious round of stock-building.· Strength of seasonal pick-up in lube demand set to determine speed at which Chinese buyers will need to replenish their stocks. · India’s plentiful base oils supplies could curb demand unless price offers are at competitive levels.· Europe’s base oils demand could stay muted as still-wide gap between domestic and export prices raises concern about further downward price pressure.· Expectations of sufficient availability add to blenders’ preference to maintain low stocks.· Gap widens further between US domestic and export prices, and between US posted prices and US domestic prices.· Wide gap could prompt domestic US buyers to hold back in anticipation of lower prices.· Any such moves could delay or dampen strength of expected seasonal pick-up in demand over coming weeks.· Latin America’s base oils demand could face pressure from slowdown in finished lube demand, rise in regional supply..Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Price outlook - margins.Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Price outlook - arbitrage