· China’s weaker-than-expected economic recovery curbs benefit for rest of Asia-Pacific.· Chinese demand for regional base oils supplies likely to be firmer in Q2 2023 than year-earlier levels, but still weaker than usual.· China’s base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown heading into summer, unless one-off events like stimulus packages boost economic/industrial activity.· China’s firm demand for base oils from South Korea in April coincides with domestic plant maintenance.· Strength of demand remains unclear when the plant maintenance ends.· State of Chinese demand for supplies from markets like Taiwan and South Korea set to be a key factor determining the availability of surplus supplies that refiners need to clear through more distant markets over the coming months.· Asia-Pacific lube demand likely holds steady in May-June, at lower level than end-Q1 2023.· Demand then set to face seasonal slowdown in Q3 2023..· Trend leaves blenders with incentive to trim base oils inventories before upcoming slowdown.· Blenders’ lower base oils requirements give them more leverage to hold off procuring feedstock supplies at prices that they deem to be too high.· India’s higher April base oils imports coincide with seasonal dip in domestic demand – reflecting buyers’ willingness to procure more supplies and increase stocks when prices are deemed competitive, and vice versa..· Indian buyers’ higher stocks, and prospect of more arbitrage shipments moving to the country over coming weeks, curb their urgency to lock in more supplies.· Lower crude and gasoil prices raise the prospect of base oils prices falling below levels at which buyers procured recent supplies, complicating subsequent procurement plans.· India’s rising very-light grade base oils imports in April likely reflect stock-replenishment to meet lube production requirements.· India’s very-light grade imports remain much lower than during 2021 and 1H 2022.· India’s demand for very light grades likely to remain at current lower levels..Global base oils - week of May 22: Price outlook - arbitrage.Contact us for more information about the data for these stories
· China’s weaker-than-expected economic recovery curbs benefit for rest of Asia-Pacific.· Chinese demand for regional base oils supplies likely to be firmer in Q2 2023 than year-earlier levels, but still weaker than usual.· China’s base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown heading into summer, unless one-off events like stimulus packages boost economic/industrial activity.· China’s firm demand for base oils from South Korea in April coincides with domestic plant maintenance.· Strength of demand remains unclear when the plant maintenance ends.· State of Chinese demand for supplies from markets like Taiwan and South Korea set to be a key factor determining the availability of surplus supplies that refiners need to clear through more distant markets over the coming months.· Asia-Pacific lube demand likely holds steady in May-June, at lower level than end-Q1 2023.· Demand then set to face seasonal slowdown in Q3 2023..· Trend leaves blenders with incentive to trim base oils inventories before upcoming slowdown.· Blenders’ lower base oils requirements give them more leverage to hold off procuring feedstock supplies at prices that they deem to be too high.· India’s higher April base oils imports coincide with seasonal dip in domestic demand – reflecting buyers’ willingness to procure more supplies and increase stocks when prices are deemed competitive, and vice versa..· Indian buyers’ higher stocks, and prospect of more arbitrage shipments moving to the country over coming weeks, curb their urgency to lock in more supplies.· Lower crude and gasoil prices raise the prospect of base oils prices falling below levels at which buyers procured recent supplies, complicating subsequent procurement plans.· India’s rising very-light grade base oils imports in April likely reflect stock-replenishment to meet lube production requirements.· India’s very-light grade imports remain much lower than during 2021 and 1H 2022.· India’s demand for very light grades likely to remain at current lower levels..Global base oils - week of May 22: Price outlook - arbitrage.Contact us for more information about the data for these stories