· China’s post-Covid lockdown economic recovery continues to lag expectations.· China’s April automobile sales surge 83pc year on year, fall from March and stay lower than April 2021 levels.· China’s April alternative-fuel vehicle sales account for more than 33pc of country’s total car sales..· Slowdown in Chinese demand for bright stock follows surge in Thailand’s Q1 exports to the country to the highest Q1 volume since 2016.· China’s weak domestic base oils prices relative to regional cargo prices point to still-muted demand and sufficient domestic supply.· Economic growth in southeast Asia shows signs of steadying at lower pace than last year.· Firm lube demand in Japan and Thailand outpaces rising supplies in March, cutting surplus availability in both countries heading into the second quarter of the year.· Total Asia-Pacific supply in March still outpaces regional demand.· Regional buyers remain confident they can secure supplies even with rise in plant maintenance work during Q2 2023.· Lack of concern about supply removes a key driver behind stronger demand.· High base oil price relative to diesel raises expectations of price correction, eroding another driver behind stronger demand.· Seasonal rise in southeast Asia’s lube demand in March lags year-earlier levels, ahead of typical slowdown in consumption during Q2 2023..· Slowdown in lube demand from year-earlier levels contrasts with rising regional base oils supply from year-earlier levels.· Trend leaves blenders with healthy stocks in Q2 2023.· Trend increases need for recovery in China to balance out slower demand in southeast Asia.· Trend increases need for regional refiners to target more distant markets, like last year.· Indonesia’s Q1 base oils imports hold firm – but Singapore accounts for growing share of its overseas requirements amid dip in supplies from South Korea.· Extension of that trend into Q2 2023 could trigger slowdown in shipments as supplies from Singapore fall.· Indian buyers likely to resist further rise in base oils prices amid healthy availability, slowdown in Asia-Pacific demand and lower crude/gasoil prices.· India’s April passenger car sales fall for first time in nine months.· India’s car buyers brought forward purchases ahead of price-increases from April, when new vehicles had to include devices that monitored emissions in real time.· India’s slowdown in Q2 lube consumption vs Q1 curbs further blenders’ requirement for overseas supplies.· More muted demand gives blenders more flexibility to turn down offers of supplies at prices they deem to be too high.· Indian buyers could face dilemma of targeting lower prices in view of fall in diesel prices while taking delivery of US supplies procured at higher prices.· Pakistan’s base oils demand likely to continue to fall in face of sliding lube consumption..Global base oils - week of May 15: Price outlook - arbitrage.Contact us for more information about the data for this story
· China’s post-Covid lockdown economic recovery continues to lag expectations.· China’s April automobile sales surge 83pc year on year, fall from March and stay lower than April 2021 levels.· China’s April alternative-fuel vehicle sales account for more than 33pc of country’s total car sales..· Slowdown in Chinese demand for bright stock follows surge in Thailand’s Q1 exports to the country to the highest Q1 volume since 2016.· China’s weak domestic base oils prices relative to regional cargo prices point to still-muted demand and sufficient domestic supply.· Economic growth in southeast Asia shows signs of steadying at lower pace than last year.· Firm lube demand in Japan and Thailand outpaces rising supplies in March, cutting surplus availability in both countries heading into the second quarter of the year.· Total Asia-Pacific supply in March still outpaces regional demand.· Regional buyers remain confident they can secure supplies even with rise in plant maintenance work during Q2 2023.· Lack of concern about supply removes a key driver behind stronger demand.· High base oil price relative to diesel raises expectations of price correction, eroding another driver behind stronger demand.· Seasonal rise in southeast Asia’s lube demand in March lags year-earlier levels, ahead of typical slowdown in consumption during Q2 2023..· Slowdown in lube demand from year-earlier levels contrasts with rising regional base oils supply from year-earlier levels.· Trend leaves blenders with healthy stocks in Q2 2023.· Trend increases need for recovery in China to balance out slower demand in southeast Asia.· Trend increases need for regional refiners to target more distant markets, like last year.· Indonesia’s Q1 base oils imports hold firm – but Singapore accounts for growing share of its overseas requirements amid dip in supplies from South Korea.· Extension of that trend into Q2 2023 could trigger slowdown in shipments as supplies from Singapore fall.· Indian buyers likely to resist further rise in base oils prices amid healthy availability, slowdown in Asia-Pacific demand and lower crude/gasoil prices.· India’s April passenger car sales fall for first time in nine months.· India’s car buyers brought forward purchases ahead of price-increases from April, when new vehicles had to include devices that monitored emissions in real time.· India’s slowdown in Q2 lube consumption vs Q1 curbs further blenders’ requirement for overseas supplies.· More muted demand gives blenders more flexibility to turn down offers of supplies at prices they deem to be too high.· Indian buyers could face dilemma of targeting lower prices in view of fall in diesel prices while taking delivery of US supplies procured at higher prices.· Pakistan’s base oils demand likely to continue to fall in face of sliding lube consumption..Global base oils - week of May 15: Price outlook - arbitrage.Contact us for more information about the data for this story
