· Americas’ base oils demand faces prospect of steeper slowdown compared with other regions in coming weeks.· US base oils demand likely to face seasonal slowdown that could be steeper than usual.· Rise in finished lube prices in US in recent weeks incentivized end-users to bring forward any procurement plans before the price-increases came into effect.· Any such moves would have boosted demand in Oct 2023, at expense of consumption in rest of Q4 2023.· Lower crude oil prices add to blenders’ incentive to hold back and to minimize inventory levels.· US Group II heavy-grade price premium to light grades falls to lowest in more than a year – suggesting weaker supply-demand fundamentals for heavy grades.· Brazil’s base oils demand likely to hold firm through Q4 2023 in the face of lower domestic output and firm lube consumption.· Argentina’s base oils demand could slow down in Q4 2023 amid rising surplus supply at end-Q3 2023 and slowing lube consumption.· Mexico’s base oils demand faces slowdown as new import requirements temporarily slow down flows from US.· Demand faces longer-term slowdown amid expectations of drop in shipments of base oils used for the fuel-extender market.· Slowdown likely to impact US base oils exports to Mexico, which more than doubled in Sept 2023 from year-earlier levels..· Europe’s base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown.· Slowdown could be smaller than same time last year, reflecting buyers’ more balanced stocks and signs that drop in regional lube demand may be slowing.· Portugal’s September lube demand rises for first time in three months..· Firmer demand adds to signs of recovery in Mediterranean region.· Firmer lube demand likely to have larger impact on base oils demand in view of blenders’ lower stocks.· Firmer demand and lower stocks speed up blenders’ need to replenish inventories more frequently..· Turkey’s Group I base oils imports rise in Sept 2023 as shipments from Russia climb to seven-year high..· Rise in shipments adds to surge in Turkey’s Group I imports from Russia throughout the past year.· Rise in shipments highlights value and importance of Turkey as key outlet for Russia’s base oils supplies.· Rise in shipments from Russia highlights benefit for Turkey as buyers secure supplies at discount to prices from other sources.· Rise in shipments from Russia this year coincides with rise in shipments from Italy and Greece.· Trend boosts Turkey’s total Group I base oils imports in 2023, despite country’s economic challenges.· Turkey’s rising base oils supply in 2023 suggests the volumes are being consumed, either through a rise in base oils or lubricants exports or through other means..Global base oils - week of Nov 13: Price outlook - arbitrage
· Americas’ base oils demand faces prospect of steeper slowdown compared with other regions in coming weeks.· US base oils demand likely to face seasonal slowdown that could be steeper than usual.· Rise in finished lube prices in US in recent weeks incentivized end-users to bring forward any procurement plans before the price-increases came into effect.· Any such moves would have boosted demand in Oct 2023, at expense of consumption in rest of Q4 2023.· Lower crude oil prices add to blenders’ incentive to hold back and to minimize inventory levels.· US Group II heavy-grade price premium to light grades falls to lowest in more than a year – suggesting weaker supply-demand fundamentals for heavy grades.· Brazil’s base oils demand likely to hold firm through Q4 2023 in the face of lower domestic output and firm lube consumption.· Argentina’s base oils demand could slow down in Q4 2023 amid rising surplus supply at end-Q3 2023 and slowing lube consumption.· Mexico’s base oils demand faces slowdown as new import requirements temporarily slow down flows from US.· Demand faces longer-term slowdown amid expectations of drop in shipments of base oils used for the fuel-extender market.· Slowdown likely to impact US base oils exports to Mexico, which more than doubled in Sept 2023 from year-earlier levels..· Europe’s base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown.· Slowdown could be smaller than same time last year, reflecting buyers’ more balanced stocks and signs that drop in regional lube demand may be slowing.· Portugal’s September lube demand rises for first time in three months..· Firmer demand adds to signs of recovery in Mediterranean region.· Firmer lube demand likely to have larger impact on base oils demand in view of blenders’ lower stocks.· Firmer demand and lower stocks speed up blenders’ need to replenish inventories more frequently..· Turkey’s Group I base oils imports rise in Sept 2023 as shipments from Russia climb to seven-year high..· Rise in shipments adds to surge in Turkey’s Group I imports from Russia throughout the past year.· Rise in shipments highlights value and importance of Turkey as key outlet for Russia’s base oils supplies.· Rise in shipments from Russia highlights benefit for Turkey as buyers secure supplies at discount to prices from other sources.· Rise in shipments from Russia this year coincides with rise in shipments from Italy and Greece.· Trend boosts Turkey’s total Group I base oils imports in 2023, despite country’s economic challenges.· Turkey’s rising base oils supply in 2023 suggests the volumes are being consumed, either through a rise in base oils or lubricants exports or through other means..Global base oils - week of Nov 13: Price outlook - arbitrage
