· Americas base oils demand likely to face more pressure from year-end slowdown and lower feedstock prices.· US buyers likely have sufficient stocks to hold back in face of healthy supply availability, weak year-end demand, and falling feedstock costs.· Latin America’s base oils demand faces pressure from slowdown in lube consumption, prospect of drop in shipments to Mexico and normalisation of base oils production in Brazil in coming weeks..· Mexico’s September lube demand falls for fifth month on lower auto lube consumption..· Slowdown cuts further Mexico’s requirements for overseas base oils supplies.· Lube demand falls at slowest pace in five months, raising prospect of steadier consumption in coming months.· Even with steadier consumption, gap between domestic demand and US base oils exports to Mexico stays unusually wide in Sept 2023..· The gap faces prospect of shrinking over the coming months more because of drop in supply than rise in demand..· Mexico’s slowdown adds to region-wide fall in Latin America’s lube consumption in September..· Demand falls more than expected, with only firmer consumption in Brazil cushioning the slowdown.· Trend increases risk of steeper slowdown if Brazil’s consumption growth were to slow from current levels.· Seasonal fall in region’s lube consumption in Q4 2023 would compound year-on-year slowdown in demand.· Trend would curb region’s demand for overseas base oils supplies..· US’ September base oils exports to Latin America surge to second-highest level in six years..· Exports get boost from sustained rise in shipments to Brazil during Q3 2023.· Shipments help to cover for drop in Brazil’s domestic base oils supply in 2H 2023.· Brazil’s demand for overseas supplies likely to ease from start of 2024 following completion of plant maintenance work.· Brazil’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could stay higher than usual if domestic lube consumption continues to rise strongly.· Brazil’s base oils demand for US supplies could stay higher than usual if arbitrage stays shut from other markets like Asia..· Europe’s base oils demand likely to face pressure from year-end slowdown and lower crude prices.· Refiners’ and blenders’ balanced-to-low inventories could limit size of slowdown in demand.· Finished lube demand shows more signs of bottoming out or recovering.· Spain’s September lube demand rises for fourth month..· Rising demand mirrors recovery in Italy's lube consumption.· Firmer demand likely to consume blenders’ base oils inventories more quickly.· Blenders likely to need to replenish inventories more quickly after they maintained lower stocks..· South Africa’s September base oils imports fall to eight-month low on pause in shipments from Netherlands..· Slowdown in imports in Q3 2023 follows surge in shipments in Q2 2023.· Slowdown suggests blenders were taking longer to consume larger volume, with weaker economic activity adding to slowdown in consumption.· Trend highlights impact of sudden surge in supplies to buyers in a short period of time.· Such moves prompt subsequent slowdown in supplies as buyers first consume existing inventories.· South Africa’s base oils imports should revert to more typical levels in Q4 2023 as buyers replenish stocks.· Rise in US shipments to South Africa continues through Q3 2023, shows signs of extending through Q4 2023.
· Americas base oils demand likely to face more pressure from year-end slowdown and lower feedstock prices.· US buyers likely have sufficient stocks to hold back in face of healthy supply availability, weak year-end demand, and falling feedstock costs.· Latin America’s base oils demand faces pressure from slowdown in lube consumption, prospect of drop in shipments to Mexico and normalisation of base oils production in Brazil in coming weeks..· Mexico’s September lube demand falls for fifth month on lower auto lube consumption..· Slowdown cuts further Mexico’s requirements for overseas base oils supplies.· Lube demand falls at slowest pace in five months, raising prospect of steadier consumption in coming months.· Even with steadier consumption, gap between domestic demand and US base oils exports to Mexico stays unusually wide in Sept 2023..· The gap faces prospect of shrinking over the coming months more because of drop in supply than rise in demand..· Mexico’s slowdown adds to region-wide fall in Latin America’s lube consumption in September..· Demand falls more than expected, with only firmer consumption in Brazil cushioning the slowdown.· Trend increases risk of steeper slowdown if Brazil’s consumption growth were to slow from current levels.· Seasonal fall in region’s lube consumption in Q4 2023 would compound year-on-year slowdown in demand.· Trend would curb region’s demand for overseas base oils supplies..· US’ September base oils exports to Latin America surge to second-highest level in six years..· Exports get boost from sustained rise in shipments to Brazil during Q3 2023.· Shipments help to cover for drop in Brazil’s domestic base oils supply in 2H 2023.· Brazil’s demand for overseas supplies likely to ease from start of 2024 following completion of plant maintenance work.· Brazil’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could stay higher than usual if domestic lube consumption continues to rise strongly.· Brazil’s base oils demand for US supplies could stay higher than usual if arbitrage stays shut from other markets like Asia..· Europe’s base oils demand likely to face pressure from year-end slowdown and lower crude prices.· Refiners’ and blenders’ balanced-to-low inventories could limit size of slowdown in demand.· Finished lube demand shows more signs of bottoming out or recovering.· Spain’s September lube demand rises for fourth month..· Rising demand mirrors recovery in Italy's lube consumption.· Firmer demand likely to consume blenders’ base oils inventories more quickly.· Blenders likely to need to replenish inventories more quickly after they maintained lower stocks..· South Africa’s September base oils imports fall to eight-month low on pause in shipments from Netherlands..· Slowdown in imports in Q3 2023 follows surge in shipments in Q2 2023.· Slowdown suggests blenders were taking longer to consume larger volume, with weaker economic activity adding to slowdown in consumption.· Trend highlights impact of sudden surge in supplies to buyers in a short period of time.· Such moves prompt subsequent slowdown in supplies as buyers first consume existing inventories.· South Africa’s base oils imports should revert to more typical levels in Q4 2023 as buyers replenish stocks.· Rise in US shipments to South Africa continues through Q3 2023, shows signs of extending through Q4 2023.