Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 8 May '26

March base oils and lubricants demand surged across Asia, Europe and the US — accelerating stockbuilding, tightening balances and deferring the supply reckoning into Q2

Japan, Thailand and Southeast Asia absorbed available supply through accelerated buying — leaving refiners with depleted inventories despite higher output and exports

Asia's March exports hit a three-year high, absorbing regional surplus and keeping markets balanced — but disruptions since late February have flipped concern from oversupply to tightening

Singapore's exports to China paused while imports from China and Hong Kong surged — pointing to China's growing surplus and emerging role as a regional supplier amid tightening elsewhere

US supply and demand had already tightened before late-February disruptions — surging consumption and falling output reduced surplus availability and limited response to stronger overseas demand

Slower South Korea-US flows and the Middle East supply disruptions pointed to lower US Group III arrivals in May, intensifying pressure on already tight supply chains

Europe entered the disruptions with healthier refinery stocks but lean blender inventories — triggering sharper replenishment buying as supply risks escalated

Structural Group III tightness and surging prices increased pressure to defer refinery maintenance — pointing to expectations of prolonged shortages