· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay cautious in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and expectations of healthy availability of supply.· Firmer Group II prices in markets like India and China relative to FOB Asia cargo prices point to steadier buying interest in those markets.· Any such buying interest could reflect impact of or concern about tighter supply because of recent or upcoming plant-maintenance work in countries that supply those markets.· Demand in those markets would need to be sufficient to absorb regional supply in view of closed arbitrage to Americas, more muted buying interest in Middle East and seasonal slowdown in Europe..· China’s Group II light-grade price holds firm or rises vs diesel prices and FOB Asia cargo prices..· Rising price-differentials point to firmer-than-usual demand for time of year.· Firmer demand could reflect tighter domestic and regional availability of Group II light-grade base oils.· Signs of firm fundamentals and more feasible arbitrage coincide with surge in Singapore’s base oils exports to China over last four weeks. .· Exports rise to highest level since March 2025, when pick-up in shipments coincided with seasonal rise in demand.· Rise in exports this time coincides with time of year when market typically faces seasonal slowdown in demand..· Base oils demand in southeast Asia could be more muted as blenders first work down existing stocks.· Firm lube demand would speed up consumption of those stocks.· Vietnam’s base oils and lube imports rise in Sept 2025 for third time in four months, increasing importance of firm demand to limit rise in stocks in that market. .· Vietnam’s imports rise as pick-up in lube shipments outweighs slowdown in base oils shipments.· Contrasting trends could point to preference to maintain larger stocks of lubricants in view of their more inelastic price.· Singapore accounts for largest share of Vietnam’s base oils imports in Sept 2025 and in Jan-Sept 2025..· Singapore’s share rises after trending lower in recent years amid pick-up in flows from South Korea.· Recent start-up of new base oils unit in Singapore increases importance for island-state to boost share of shipments in markets like Vietnam..· India’s imported Group II price-premium to FOB Asia cargo prices stays wide for light grades, extends recovery for heavy grades..· Wide price-premium sustains feasibility of moving more shipments from Asia to India, suggests demand remains firm.· Wide price-premium coincides with signs of slowdown in shipments to India from several of its key suppliers in recent weeks.· Singapore’s base oils exports to India extend slide in four weeks to end-Oct 2025..· Drop in shipments coincides with signs of slowdown in shipments from Taiwan and Saudi Arabia to India through most of Oct 2025.· India’s imports from Saudi Arabia could stay lower in Nov-Dec 2025 because of scheduled plant-maintenance work in that country..· Slowdown in shipments from key sources could reflect more muted demand in India.· Slowdown in shipments and still-wide price-premium could instead reflect more limited number of alternative sources and stronger demand for those supplies.· Scenario could trigger pick-up in interest in supplies from sources like US.· Recent slowdown in shipments to India from key sources follows rise in Asia’s exports to the country in Aug-Sept 2025, helping to replenish low stocks.· Exports extend rise after India’s base oils supply lags demand in Sept 2025 for third time in four months..· Shortfall narrows from Aug 2025 but still limits pace of blenders’ moves to replenish stocks.· Any extension of India’s strong lube demand through Q4 2025 would keep pressure on those stocks and on blenders’ need to carry on replenishing them.· Demand for supplies from Asia could be stronger than for shipments from US in view of the shorter transhipment time for regional supplies.· Concern about expected rise in Asia’s base oils supply over coming months could boost blenders’ preference to maintain lean inventories, adding to attraction of procuring supplies with shorter transshipment time.· Recent slowdown in flows from Asia could complicate that strategy..India’s September base oils supply shortfall narrows.Vietnam’s September base oils/lube imports rise.India’s Sept base oils output holds firm.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 27 October
