· Asia’s base oils demand could wane as expectations of improving supply and more muted end-user consumption incentivize blenders to keep low stocks.· High base oils margins could add to buyers’ preference to hold back amid concern about disconnect between high margins and prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals.· More muted regional demand would speed up recovery in supply as more plant maintenance draws to a close in coming weeks.· More muted regional demand and rising supply would increase need to boost buying interest in more distant markets.· Typical seasonal slowdown in China’s base oils demand from end-Q2 could start earlier and more rapidly than usual this year.· Demand got support in recent months from heavy round of domestic plant maintenance work.· Completion of plant maintenance work in coming weeks would remove that support.· China’s domestic Group II base oils prices point to still-firm fundamentals despite prospect of weaker demand and improving supply.· China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to FOB Asia cargo price stays relatively firm, contrasts with slump in premium from April 2024.· China’s Group II N500 premium to FOB Asia cargo price holds steadier after trending lower this year, but remains much higher than year-earlier levels..· Firm premiums follow rise in China’s base oils demand to one-year high in March 2025..· Higher demand likely reflects stock-building in preparation for plant maintenance more than for seasonal pick-up in consumption.· China’s base oils demand falls in Q1 2025 yoy for first time in two years..· Demand falls even before China and US’ imposition of steeper tariffs on each other at start of Q2 2025.· Demand likely to face further pressure in Q2 2025 following imposition of the tariffs..· Any such slowdown would add to signs of already-weaker demand in southeast Asia.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia stay unusually low over past four weeks..· Exports stay low even after seasonal rise in demand at end-Q1 2025 leaves blenders with low stocks.· Lower-than-usual exports to southeast Asia and blenders’ lack of urgency to buy suggest they are more comfortable maintaining lower stocks.· Likely seasonal slowdown in lube consumption from end-Q2 2025 would prolong blenders’ more muted buying interest.· Any tariff-related economic slowdown would compound dip in lube consumption, adding to attraction of keeping low stocks..· India’s base oils demand shows more mixed signals.· Demand could ease as buyers focus on consuming existing stocks procured when crude oil prices were higher and supply-demand fundamentals were tighter.· Import volumes in April 2025 show signs of holding firm, with pick-up in shipments from US and Saudi Arabia, firm volumes from South Korea, and additional supplies from less regular sources like Turkmenistan.· Firm import volumes in March-April 2025 help to replenish buyers’ inventories that were depleted at end-Q1 2025.· Sufficient stocks give buyers leverage to hold back in anticipation of prices that start to reflect weakening supply-supply demand fundamentals in coming weeks.· Buying interest could focus more on supplies from Asia than from US amid expectations of more rapid pick-up in surplus availability in Asia than in US..· CFR India Group II heavy-grade premium to FOB Asia price extends rise at end-April 2025..· Widening Group II premium points to ongoing buying interest even with prospect of weakening supply-demand fundamentals.· Widening Group II premium suggests supply-demand fundamentals remain relatively firm for now.· Group II fundamentals could get support from tighter availability of Group I supply because of plant maintenance work in Middle East. · Widening premium adds to attraction of focusing more on supplies from Asia..· CFR India Group II N70 price discount to India’s domestic retail diesel prices weakens to widest level this year..· Wider discount to retail diesel price typically boosts buying interest in very-light grade base oils.· Wide CFR India N70 premium to Singapore gasoil could conversely raise expectations of further drop in outright N70 price..China’s March base oils demand rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April.Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
· Asia’s base oils demand could wane as expectations of improving supply and more muted end-user consumption incentivize blenders to keep low stocks.· High base oils margins could add to buyers’ preference to hold back amid concern about disconnect between high margins and prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals.· More muted regional demand would speed up recovery in supply as more plant maintenance draws to a close in coming weeks.· More muted regional demand and rising supply would increase need to boost buying interest in more distant markets.· Typical seasonal slowdown in China’s base oils demand from end-Q2 could start earlier and more rapidly than usual this year.· Demand got support in recent months from heavy round of domestic plant maintenance work.· Completion of plant maintenance work in coming weeks would remove that support.· China’s domestic Group II base oils prices point to still-firm fundamentals despite prospect of weaker demand and improving supply.· China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to FOB Asia cargo price stays relatively firm, contrasts with slump in premium from April 2024.· China’s Group II N500 premium to FOB Asia cargo price holds steadier after trending lower this year, but remains much higher than year-earlier levels..· Firm premiums follow rise in China’s base oils demand to one-year high in March 2025..· Higher demand likely reflects stock-building in preparation for plant maintenance more than for seasonal pick-up in consumption.· China’s base oils demand falls in Q1 2025 yoy for first time in two years..· Demand falls even before China and US’ imposition of steeper tariffs on each other at start of Q2 2025.· Demand likely to face further pressure in Q2 2025 following imposition of the tariffs..· Any such slowdown would add to signs of already-weaker demand in southeast Asia.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia stay unusually low over past four weeks..· Exports stay low even after seasonal rise in demand at end-Q1 2025 leaves blenders with low stocks.· Lower-than-usual exports to southeast Asia and blenders’ lack of urgency to buy suggest they are more comfortable maintaining lower stocks.· Likely seasonal slowdown in lube consumption from end-Q2 2025 would prolong blenders’ more muted buying interest.· Any tariff-related economic slowdown would compound dip in lube consumption, adding to attraction of keeping low stocks..· India’s base oils demand shows more mixed signals.· Demand could ease as buyers focus on consuming existing stocks procured when crude oil prices were higher and supply-demand fundamentals were tighter.· Import volumes in April 2025 show signs of holding firm, with pick-up in shipments from US and Saudi Arabia, firm volumes from South Korea, and additional supplies from less regular sources like Turkmenistan.· Firm import volumes in March-April 2025 help to replenish buyers’ inventories that were depleted at end-Q1 2025.· Sufficient stocks give buyers leverage to hold back in anticipation of prices that start to reflect weakening supply-supply demand fundamentals in coming weeks.· Buying interest could focus more on supplies from Asia than from US amid expectations of more rapid pick-up in surplus availability in Asia than in US..· CFR India Group II heavy-grade premium to FOB Asia price extends rise at end-April 2025..· Widening Group II premium points to ongoing buying interest even with prospect of weakening supply-demand fundamentals.· Widening Group II premium suggests supply-demand fundamentals remain relatively firm for now.· Group II fundamentals could get support from tighter availability of Group I supply because of plant maintenance work in Middle East. · Widening premium adds to attraction of focusing more on supplies from Asia..· CFR India Group II N70 price discount to India’s domestic retail diesel prices weakens to widest level this year..· Wider discount to retail diesel price typically boosts buying interest in very-light grade base oils.· Wide CFR India N70 premium to Singapore gasoil could conversely raise expectations of further drop in outright N70 price..China’s March base oils demand rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April.Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 April
