Demand rises to second-highest level since early 2023
Strong demand mirrors unusually high consumption in Italy
Firmer demand contrasts with tighter Group I base oils supply
Spain’s lubricant demand rose in October, climbing to its second-highest level since early 2023.
The increase in Spain reinforced signs of a broader recovery across southern Europe, after Italy’s lubricant demand climbed to its highest level in more than three years.
The strength in October raised the prospect that a fragile recovery in European lube consumption, seen in August and September, could extend into the fourth quarter.
Stronger demand contrasted with tighter-than-expected base oils availability in Europe, amid Group I supply disruptions in the region and Group II plant-maintenance activity in the US.
The combination of firmer demand and constrained supply slowed both the pace and scale of the typical year-end build-up in surplus base oils volumes.
Key Highlights
Spain’s lubricant consumption reached 39,900 tonnes in October, rising 3% year-on-year and increasing for the first time in three months
October demand was the second-highest monthly level since March 2023, highlighting unusually firm consumption
Spain recorded its strongest October lubricant demand since 2019, reinforcing signs of sustained demand strength
Stronger demand in Spain coincided with Italy’s October lubricant consumption rising to its highest level since March 2022
Spain and Italy’s gains contrasted with a dip in Portugal’s consumption, its first decline in nine months
Beyond the Mediterranean region, Poland’s lubricant demand edged down 1%, marking its first drop in three months
Market Implications
Stronger demand at the start of the fourth quarter could encourage blenders to maintain higher-than-usual inventories toward year-end.
Firmer demand and a smaller-than-expected base oils surplus carried into early 2026 could ease downward pressure on prices and speed up buyers’ moves to replenish stocks.
