Global base oils exports to the Middle East fell in September to the second-lowest level this year amid a dip in shipments from Asia and Europe.Exports likely recovered strongly in October amid a rebound in shipments from Asia.A more feasible arbitrage to move shipments from the US to the Middle East also raised the prospect of higher volumes from that market.Expectations that availability of supply would continue to improve boosted the attraction for blenders to hold back and tap existing stocks for now.Total base oils exports of around 30,000 tonnes to the UAE and Saudi Arabia in September fell from close to 42,000 tonnes the previous month, government data showed.The supplies originated from US, Europe and Asia.Exports fell mostly because of a dip in shipments from South Korea, whose total exports slumped to a multi-year low in September.The fall in exports coincided with the start of plant maintenance work in South Korea that month.The slowdown was short-lived.South Korea’s exports rebounded in October, lifting shipments from Asia to the Middle East to more than 33,000 tonnes, from less than 20,500 tonnes in September.Asia’s October exports got a further boost from the addition of rare shipments from Singapore to the region.The rise in flows from Asia was set to keep blenders’ inventories at comfortable levels and curbed their need to accept prices for additional supplies that they deemed to be too high.Expectations of improving availability from the US added to blenders’ supply options.Exports from the US to the region already rose in September to a four-month high of more than 5,500 tonnes.Shipment volumes rose even with US Group II export prices at a premium of more than $100/tonne to CFR UAE prices in early September.The premium narrowed steadily over the following weeks, before US heavy-grade prices flipped to a discount to CFR UAE prices from late-October. The discount widened further in November.The widening discount made increasingly feasible the shipment of surplus supplies from the US to outlets like the Middle East.Exports from Europe to the Middle East slipped to a four-month low in September, extending a sharp fall in shipments to the region throughout most of this year.Any year-end pick-up in shipments from Europe also looked less likely, with the arbitrage shut and surplus Group I supplies tighter than usual for the time of year..US September base oil/lube exports fall.S Korea’s October base oils exports rise.Global base oils exports to Middle East fall in August
