Global base oils exports to the Middle East likely fell in December amid a slump in shipments from Asia.The drop in flows from Asia left buyers more reliant on supplies from US and Europe, as well as local shipments from Iran.Any extension of the slowdown in shipments from Asia into the beginning of this year would extend that reliance and boost the leverage of suppliers in those other markets.It would also increase buyers’ reliance on existing inventories that got a boost in October and November.Total exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia combined came to around 53,000 tonnes in November, government data showed. The volume edged down from close to 55,000 tonnes the previous month.The supplies originated from Asia, US and Europe.The volumes were up from average shipments of less than 35,000 tonnes/month to the Middle East during the previous six months to September.Exports got a boost in November from a large shipment of Group II base oils from Taiwan as well as a pick-up in flows from Singapore.The subsequent rise in shipments from Asia that month balanced out a drop in supplies from the US and Europe.That dynamic would need to change in December following a slide in shipments from Asia.The slowdown could extend into early this year as refiners in Asia prepare for a seasonal pick-up in demand and upcoming plant maintenance work.Any pick-up in shipments from the US would help to cover the region’s Group II base oils requirements.It would also provide US refiners with a valuable outlet to clear surplus supplies from their market.Any pick-up in Group I shipments from Europe was less likely, with the arbitrage still shut and signs of a smaller-than-usual surplus to clear from that market at the end of last year and early this year..S Korea December base oils exports fall.Taiwan’s Nov base oils exports rise.US’ Nov base oils/lube exports slip
