Global base oils exports to the Middle East likely stayed lower than usual in January amid a slump in shipments from Asia.Exports from Asia to Saudi Arabia and the UAE combined held at less than 10,000 tonnes in January for a second month, government data showed.The volume was down from more than 35,000 tonnes in January 2024 and from typical levels of more than 28,000 tonnes/month throughout last year.The slowdown in shipments left buyers reliant on a pick-up in supplies from the US and Europe to cover the shortfall.Such a pick-up in shipments was more feasible at the start of the year, when both of those markets typically seek outlets for surplus supplies.Like Asia, the size of any supply surplus in US and Europe at end-2024 and early this year showed signs of being smaller than usual.A smaller surplus could instead limit any pick-up in shipments from those markets to the Middle East.Any such scenario raised the prospect of total export volumes to the region staying lower for longer.Total exports of less than 25,000 tonnes to Saudi Arabia and the UAE in December fell from more than 50,000 tonnes in each of the previous two months to a six-month low.The supplies originated from the US, Europe and Asia..Shipments from the US and Europe would need to rise sharply in January to balance out the slowdown from Asia and return shipments closer to typical levels of more than 42,000 tonnes/month in 2024.An extended slowdown in shipments would by contrast curb the opportunity for buyers in the Middle East to replenish stocks or to procure supplies at discounted price levels.Lower stocks and more limited supply options would in turn curb buyers’ leverage over price levels and require more frequent moves to top up inventories.It also increased their reliance on shipments from key suppliers within the region..S Korea Jan base oils exports to UAE fall.US' Dec base oils exports stay lower.Saudi Arabia Jan Yanbu/Jeddah base oils exports fall.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
