Italy’s lube demand fell in May for the first time in three months, highlighting the fragility of any recovery in Europe’s lube consumption.The prospect of a further fall in the region’s lube demand incentivized blenders and distributors to maintain low stocks.A likely pick-up in base oils supply following the completion of plant-maintenance work added to that incentive.Falling lube demand would also magnify the size of a seasonal slowdown in consumption in the third quarter of the year.Italy’s lube consumption of 32,100 tonnes in May fell by 7% from year-earlier levels, government data showed..Demand fell amid a 13% dip in industrial oils consumption and an 11% fall in consumption of heavy-duty engine oils.The slower demand far outweighed a 3% rise in consumption of passenger-car engine oils and pointed to weakness more in the industrial rather than services sector.Italy’s lube consumption is a useful bellwether for the state of Europe’s lube demand, with similar growth trends and data published several weeks before other key markets in the region.The pick-up in Italy’s lube consumption in March and April contrasted with more varied demand in other key markets like Spain and France.The dip in Italy’s consumption in May now put the onus on a strong pick-up in demand in those other markets to avoid a sharper slowdown in Europe’s total demand.The more likely prospect of a further regionwide drop in demand would leave blenders’ stocks lasting longer, delaying any need to replenish those stocks.Lower demand instead sustained the incentive for blenders to maintain lower inventories.Lower demand during the second quarter also cushioned the impact of base oils plant-maintenance in Europe and any supply- or price-volatility caused by geopolitical events.Expectations of a pick-up in base oils supplies over the coming months, combined with the seasonal dip in consumption during the summer holidays, instead boosted the attraction for blenders to keep stocks at lower levels..Italy’s April lube demand rises.UK’s March base oils output rises.Netherlands’ March base oils output stays lower
