Italy’s lube demand rose in July for the fourth time in five months, adding to signs that Europe’s prolonged fall in lube consumption has bottomed out.Italy’s lube consumption of 37,200 tonnes in July rose by 4% from year-earlier levels, government data showed. The volume was the highest in more than three years..Automobile lube demand climbed by 6% on the back of a strong rise in consumption of passenger-car motor oils.Industrial oils consumption rose by 2% in July, slowing from a 6% growth-rate the previous month.Italy’s lube consumption is a useful bellwether for the state of Europe’s lubricants market.The data is released several weeks earlier than many other countries in the region, while its growth trend has a strong correlation with the rest of Europe..Firmer lube demand growth in Europe in the third quarter of the year would cushion the size of a seasonal fall in consumption in the month of August.It would then magnify a subsequent revival in demand in the month of September.Such a scenario would require additional base oils feedstock supplies and higher inventories to cover the pick-up in demand.Even so, any such recovery would be relative.It would follow a sustained fall in Europe’s lube consumption since 2022, such that demand remained historically low even if it extends its recovery.Weak demand contrasted with increasingly healthy regional availability of most base oils grades.The ready availability of supply gave blenders the flexibility to continue to maintain low stocks and to top up with additional volumes if they faced any supply shortfall.The drop in Europe’s base oils prices in recent weeks added to the attraction of holding back.Even an extension of the recovery in Italy’s lube consumption was unclear.Its industrial lube consumption growth tends to track closely the country’s manufacturing confidence index. The index slipped in August from a thirteen-month high in July..Europe June Group III supply holds firm.Asia’s June lube demand recovers.Brazil’s July lube demand holds steadier.Argentina’s July lube demand falls
