Poland’s 2024 lube demand falls

Poland’s lube demand fell to a four-year-low in 2024 amid a sharp dip in consumption of passenger car motor oils (PCMO).

The slowdown outweighed firmer consumption of heavy-duty engine oils (HDEO) and relatively steady industrial oils demand.

Total lube consumption of 231,800 tonnes in 2024 fell by 2% from 237,400 tonnes the previous year, according to the Polish Organisation of Petroleum Industry and Trade (POPIHN).

Demand fell mostly because of a 9% dip in PCMO consumption.

The fall in PCMO demand also highlighted the sustained shift towards increasingly low-viscosity engine oils, which require more premium-grade base oils to produce.

The dynamic increased the need for growing requirements of Group II and Group III base oils and cut demand for Group I supplies.

At the same time, the fall in total engine oils consumption curbed the size of the boost in requirements for premium-grade supplies.

Demand for 15W and 20W motor oils fell by more than 40% in 2024 from the previous year, and by 19% for 10W engine oils.

The contraction far exceeded the 6% drop in consumption of lower-viscosity 0W and 5W engine oils, whose market share continued to rise.

Consumption of HDEO showed a similar dynamic.

Total consumption rose by 4.5% in 2024 from a year earlier, with sales of 0W and 5W engine oils rising by 14%. Sales of 15W and 20W engine oils by contrast rose by less than 1%.

Poland’s industrial oils demand fell by 2% in 2024, mostly because of a dip in consumption of hydraulic oils.

POPIHN expected recent moves in Europe to boost defense and infrastructure spending to support firmer industrial oils demand in the medium term.