

Europe’s Group II supply rose to a six-month high, driven by strong regional output and lower exports
Stock builds during the seasonal demand lull helped cushion the initial impact of disruptions from late-February
Group II supply remained steadier than Group III, supporting increased use where substitution was feasible
Europe’s Group II base oils supply remained elevated in February for a second month as stronger regional output offset weaker imports and lifted stocks ahead of supply disruptions from end-February.
Total supply, or regional output and imports combined, rose to close to 180,000 tonnes in February, in line with January and the highest in six months, CBS Statline, Eurostat and other government data showed.
Supply rose during a period of seasonally weaker demand, adding to a build in inventories ahead of the typical recovery in consumption towards the end of the first quarter.
Higher stocks helped cushion the immediate impact of global supply disruptions from end-February.
Key Highlights
· The Netherlands’ base oils output rose to a 19-month high, holding above 100,000 tonnes for a third straight month.
· Europe’s Group II base oils imports fell 8% year on year to a three-month low amid lower inflows from the US.
· Total supply, or output and imports less the Netherlands’ internal demand, stayed close to 150,000 tonnes for a third straight month, up from less than 115,000 tonnes/month in the year to November 2025.
· The Netherlands’ exports to markets outside Europe fell to a seven-month low, leaving more supply within the region.
Market Repercussions
Europe’s Group III base oils supply also rose in February, leaving the regional market well stocked with premium-grade base oils ahead of the seasonal demand recovery at the end of the first quarter.
The supply disruptions from end-February upended that balance.
The disruptions had the most direct impact on Europe’s Group III base oils supplies, which faced a growing squeeze amid a pause in replenishment shipments from the Middle East.
Tighter availability of Group III base oils increased demand for Group II base oils as an alternative lubricant feedstock where substitution was feasible.
Europe’s Group II supply also faced pressure as refiners focused on maximising motor fuels output.
Even so, the region’s greater reliance on European and US supply sources rather than the Middle East increased the feasibility of more regular replenishment flows, keeping availability steadier.
A wave of US shipments to Europe in April reflected that dynamic.
Steadier Group II supply increased the attraction of using the base oils in lubricants formulations, adding to a pick-up in demand for the grade.