· US base oils demand typically rises around this time of year to meet seasonal pick-up in lube consumption.· US spot base oils prices mostly hold steady, even with round of plant maintenance work and higher crude oil prices that keep margins under pressure..· Steady prices, despite rangebound margins and lower supply, suggest demand is lower than usual and lower than expected for the time of year.· Buyers have added incentive to hold back this week ahead of expected announcement of additional US tariffs on imports.· Uncertainty about size, extent and impact of tariffs adds to incentive to hold back.· Uncertainty highlights impact of tariffs even before their implementation.· Overseas demand for US supplies could also be slower than usual amid similar concern about impact of tariffs.· Uncertainty boosts overseas’ buyers incentive to procure smaller volumes and to diversify their supply sources.· Any such moves to diversify supply sources could be complicated by tight supply and closed arbitrage from Europe and Asia to Americas markets..· Latin America’s base oils demand could face additional pressure from concern about weaker lube consumption even ahead of any tariff-related pressures.· Slower lube consumption adds to buyers’ caution and preference to hold lower stocks.· Preference for lower stocks boosts attraction of securing smaller volumes more locally.· Argentina’s demand for base oils supplies from overseas markets could stay more muted even if country’s lube consumption extends recent recovery.· Revival in demand should boost its requirements for overseas supplies, especially from US.· Argentina’s slump in base oils imports in 2024 reflected its ability to cover more of its requirements from domestic sources..· That trend could continue this year if buyers seek to bypass uncertainty about any changes in trade-related costs. .· Europe’s base oils demand could stay more mixed even with seasonal pick-up in requirements.· Demand could be stronger for base oils supplies whose availability is deemed to be tighter.· Other grades with more plentiful availability give buyers the leverage to continue to procure smaller volumes more frequently.· Uncertainty about lube market outlook adds to incentive for blenders to maintain lower inventories.· Improving economic sentiment in market like Germany could precede pick-up in industrial activity and lubricants demand.· Imposition of US tariffs could hamper any recovery in economic activity.· Uncertainty about outlook coincides with ongoing signs of weak lube consumption in Q1 2025.· Italy’s lube demand falls in Feb 2025 for seventh month from year-earlier levels..· Falling consumption contrasts with firmer lube demand in other markets like Spain early this year.· Mixed demand signals and healthy availability of premium-grade base oils give buyers the option to procure additional supplies as required..· Europe’s high Group I export prices and limited supply incentivize overseas buyers to target shipments from other sources like US and Asia.· Europe’s Group I brightstock export price premium to CFR India price widens in March 2025.· US brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks, reflecting that dynamic..· Demand in West Africa markets like Nigeria could ease as sustained pick-up in shipments to the country leaves the country with healthy supplies.· Global base oils exports to Nigeria rise in Jan 2025 to second-highest level in more than a year, leaving total shipments in last three months at highest level in more than five years..· Supply likely to get further boost amid signs of steady flow of shipments from US, Europe and South America to Nigeria in Feb-March 2025..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March.Global exports to Africa rise in January .Italy's February lube demand falls.Argentina’s Feb base oils supply rises
· US base oils demand typically rises around this time of year to meet seasonal pick-up in lube consumption.· US spot base oils prices mostly hold steady, even with round of plant maintenance work and higher crude oil prices that keep margins under pressure..· Steady prices, despite rangebound margins and lower supply, suggest demand is lower than usual and lower than expected for the time of year.· Buyers have added incentive to hold back this week ahead of expected announcement of additional US tariffs on imports.· Uncertainty about size, extent and impact of tariffs adds to incentive to hold back.· Uncertainty highlights impact of tariffs even before their implementation.· Overseas demand for US supplies could also be slower than usual amid similar concern about impact of tariffs.· Uncertainty boosts overseas’ buyers incentive to procure smaller volumes and to diversify their supply sources.· Any such moves to diversify supply sources could be complicated by tight supply and closed arbitrage from Europe and Asia to Americas markets..· Latin America’s base oils demand could face additional pressure from concern about weaker lube consumption even ahead of any tariff-related pressures.· Slower lube consumption adds to buyers’ caution and preference to hold lower stocks.· Preference for lower stocks boosts attraction of securing smaller volumes more locally.· Argentina’s demand for base oils supplies from overseas markets could stay more muted even if country’s lube consumption extends recent recovery.· Revival in demand should boost its requirements for overseas supplies, especially from US.· Argentina’s slump in base oils imports in 2024 reflected its ability to cover more of its requirements from domestic sources..· That trend could continue this year if buyers seek to bypass uncertainty about any changes in trade-related costs. .· Europe’s base oils demand could stay more mixed even with seasonal pick-up in requirements.· Demand could be stronger for base oils supplies whose availability is deemed to be tighter.· Other grades with more plentiful availability give buyers the leverage to continue to procure smaller volumes more frequently.· Uncertainty about lube market outlook adds to incentive for blenders to maintain lower inventories.· Improving economic sentiment in market like Germany could precede pick-up in industrial activity and lubricants demand.· Imposition of US tariffs could hamper any recovery in economic activity.· Uncertainty about outlook coincides with ongoing signs of weak lube consumption in Q1 2025.· Italy’s lube demand falls in Feb 2025 for seventh month from year-earlier levels..· Falling consumption contrasts with firmer lube demand in other markets like Spain early this year.· Mixed demand signals and healthy availability of premium-grade base oils give buyers the option to procure additional supplies as required..· Europe’s high Group I export prices and limited supply incentivize overseas buyers to target shipments from other sources like US and Asia.· Europe’s Group I brightstock export price premium to CFR India price widens in March 2025.· US brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks, reflecting that dynamic..· Demand in West Africa markets like Nigeria could ease as sustained pick-up in shipments to the country leaves the country with healthy supplies.· Global base oils exports to Nigeria rise in Jan 2025 to second-highest level in more than a year, leaving total shipments in last three months at highest level in more than five years..· Supply likely to get further boost amid signs of steady flow of shipments from US, Europe and South America to Nigeria in Feb-March 2025..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March.Global exports to Africa rise in January .Italy's February lube demand falls.Argentina’s Feb base oils supply rises
