Imports fall year on year in 2025 for sixth straight year, sliding to multi-year lowBase oils exports rise to multi-year high in December and record levels in 2025China's shrinking imports and rising exports reshape country's role into a major competitor for market share across Asia.China’s base oils imports fell to a seventeen-month low in December, extending a dip in inflows from overseas markets in 2025 and reinforcing a broader shift in the country’s trade balance.Lower imports contrasted with a rise in base oils exports, underlining China’s dwindling role as a key outlet for overseas supplies and its growing role as a major competitor for market share across the region..Asia’s November Base Oils Supply Rises, Surplus Still Tightens.China imported 90,300 tonnes of base oils in December, down from more than 160,000 tonnes in November and the lowest since mid-2024, government data showed.Base oils exports rose to 28,600 tonnes in December, increasing year on year for the sixth time in seven months to the highest since August 2022..Key Highlights· Total imports rose to 358,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter, up 8% year on year and holding in a narrow range since the second quarter.· Total imports of 1.47 million tonnes in 2025 still fell by 4% from 2024, slipping for a sixth straight-year to a multi-year low..· Total base oils exports rose to 71,500 tonnes in the fourth quarter, climbing 27% year on year to a record high.· Southeast Asia’s share of China’s exports fell to 56% in the fourth quarter, the lowest since 2023.· India and the Middle East instead increased their combined share of China’s shipments to 37%, up from 12% in the third quarter. · China’s total exports of 217,300 tonnes in 2025 rose by 27% and for a fifth straight year to a record-high..Market RepercussionsFalling imports reduced China’s role as a key outlet for global base oils supply, while rising exports added competitive pressure in Southeast Asia, and increasingly in more distant markets such as the Middle East.Any extension of these trends into 2026 would add additional supply to a regional market already grappling with a wave of new production capacity..ExxonMobil starts first-of-its-kind technology in Singapore.Even with continued growth in Asia’s demand, higher supply and intensifying competition could increase the need to boost shipments to more distant markets like Europe and Latin America.
