Middle East disruption is leaving the US short of the Group III volumes it normally receives, tightening its balance at a time when summer surplus would otherwise move to export markets.

Wide US arbitrage is drawing more Asian base oils toward the Americas, adding to established Group III flows.

The additional flows to the Americas are removing more surplus from Asia just as seasonal demand starts to revive after the summer lull.

Singapore's recent surge in shipments to the US, despite lower total exports, adds to that trend, removing more supply from the Asian market.

More signs that destocking is drawing to a close would ease the August seasonal slowdown and strengthen the demand pickup at the end of the third quarter.

Europe's summer build is likely to be smaller than usual after the region entered the third quarter with a thinner surplus, just as seasonal demand begins to recover.

Group III maintenance in Asia and Europe is set to tighten premium-grade supply further, compounding the disruptions and their knock-on effects across the market.