Demand flat year-on-year as southeast Asia weakness offsets India growth
Larger month-on-month decline leaves more supply for regional refiners to place
India's rising domestic production boosts need for rapid recovery in southeast Asia demand
Asia’s lube demand stalled in October, with strong growth in India offset by a notable slowdown across southeast Asia.
A prolonged downturn in southeast Asia would put even greater importance on India’s continued growth to support Asia’s overall lube demand in 2026.
Even with sustained growth, India’s reliance on base oils imports is likely to wane next year as new domestic production capacity starts up, giving buyers the ability to cover more of their requirements locally.
Such a shift heightens the need for healthy demand growth in markets like southeast Asia and Pakistan to absorb more of the region’s growing base oils supply.
Asia’s total lube consumption came to more than 825,000 tonnes in October, roughly flat year-on-year, government and industry data showed.
The volume excludes China.
Demand fell from 875,00 tonnes in September, when regional consumption enjoyed a typical seasonal lift.
The large month-on-month slowdown contrasted with a steady September-October consumption trend seen last year.
The sharper dip this year increased pressure on regional refiners to adjust output or to move more base oils cargoes to more distant markets.
Most of the decline in Asia’s lube demand came from southeast Asia, where consumption dipped to a seven-month low.
Demand softened across Thailand and slowed in markets like Vietnam and Indonesia.