Price Outlook

Global base oils - week of May 29: Price outlook - margins

Iain Pocock

·        Europe’s Group I base oils price premium to diesel edges down, holds firm close to highest since last August.

·        Europe’s Group II premium to diesel holds close to highest since last September.

·        Base oil premium to diesel stays much lower than year-earlier levels.

·        Diesel premium to crude also much lower than year-earlier levels.

·        Firm base oil premium to diesel, and weaker diesel premium to crude, boosts incentive for refiners to produce more base oils.

·        Asia’s Group I base oils premium to gasoil continues to edge down from more than 16-month high in early May.

·        Asia Group II base oils premium to gasoil follows similar trend.

·        Base oils premium to gasoil stays unusually high, up more than $270/t since 2H January.

·        China’s domestic Group II light-grade premium to Shandong diesel extends fall to lowest in almost two months.

·        Group II premium to Shandong diesel stays close to highest levels over last two years.

·        High premium to diesel incentivizes refiners to raise production, gives them leverage to trim prices and still maintain firm margins.

·        US Group II price premium to diesel weakens, holds firm vs Feb-March levels.

Japan's Base Oils Supply Falls Short As Imports Sink

Brazil's July Lubricants Demand Fall Eases As Argentina's Deepens

Japan's July Base Oils Demand Rises For First Time In Three Months

Europe’s June Group II Supply Falls As US Imports Slump

Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review - 28 Aug '26