Global base oil supply exceeded demand by the smallest December margin in three years, leaving the market with less buffer as Middle East disruption spreads
Global supply reached a four-year high in 2025, but expectations of a 2026 surplus have reversed as the conflict disrupts shipments and threatens output
China’s elevated February output cushions the market against supply shocks, but lower Group III production leaves that segment tighter
Singapore exports surged to a three-year high, even as feedstock disruption threatens future shipments
India’s February lubricants demand rose for an eighth straight month, keeping base oils supplies tight ahead of peak seasonal demand
Taiwan’s February exports fell to a 17-month low as shipments to India paused, raising the risk of tighter Asian supply if the slowdown extends into March
Europe’s December supply fell for an eighth straight month, leaving the market more exposed ahead of spring demand
Saudi cargo diverted from the UAE to India, Spanish premium grades reach India via the Red Sea, and more US shipments moved to West Africa