Base oils imports fell to a four-year low as Russian Group I shipments dropped to the lowest in more than 15 years
A sizeable cargo to India lifted Group I exports to a more-than decade high, accelerating inventory drawdowns
Tighter supply from Russia, Europe and the Middle East increased reliance on domestic production in the coming months
Turkey’s base oils imports fell to a four-year low in February, cutting inventories and leaving blenders more exposed to supply disruptions that emerged from the end of the month.
Total base oils imports fell to 33,000 tonnes in February, dipping from around 42,500 tonnes in January to the lowest since October 2021, Turkish Statistical Institute data showed.
The contraction extended a sharp slowdown in imports that began in September 2025, driven by a simultaneous slump in Group I shipments from Europe and Russia.
The slowdown coincided with a tighter supply balance in Europe during the final months of last year, alongside disruptions to Russian export flows.
Key Highlights
· Group I base oils imports fell by more than 50% year on year and for a seventh straight month to the lowest since July 2021.
· Imports fell as shipments from Russia slumped to the lowest in more than 15 years, outweighing a revival in flows from Europe to a ten-month high.
· Group I imports included another cargo from Egypt, amid increasingly regular flows from that market.
· Premium-grade imports fell to a five-month low as shipments from Russia dipped to the lowest since May 2019.
· Middle East suppliers accounted for 15% of premium-grade imports, up from 13% in January.
· Turkey’s Group I exports rose to the highest in more than a decade after a large cargo moved to India for the first time in more than four years.
Market Repercussions
Seasonal demand and plant maintenance were already set to tighten Europe’s supply balance further in the first quarter. Disruptions that emerged in late February compounded the drop in availability.
Tighter supply increased Turkey’s reliance on a recovery in shipments from Russia to replenish low inventories. But those supplies continued to face disruption from attacks on domestic refineries.
Turkey also faced a dip in premium-grade shipments from Middle East suppliers such as Qatar and Bahrain.
A recovery in supply from any of those sources appeared unlikely in the near term, putting pressure on domestic production to cover a growing shortfall.