Saudi Arabia extended its role as a key supplier during the global disruptions, with Red Sea exports rebounding in June
Higher shipments to India helped offset weaker supply from Singapore and other producers during the second quarter
July shipments pointed to slower flows ahead of planned maintenance, just as Red Sea shipping risk added further uncertainty for one of the market's steadiest suppliers
Saudi Arabia's Red Sea base oils exports rebounded in June, extending a second-quarter surge that helped offset supply disruptions across Asia and the Middle East.
Combined shipments from Yanbu and Jeddah rose to more than 60,000 tonnes in June from less than 50,000 tonnes in May, provisional shipping data showed.
The strong shipments lifted second-quarter exports to more than 185,000 tonnes, the highest quarterly volume since the final quarter of 2024.
The increase made Saudi Arabia one of the few major suppliers able to raise exports while others such as Singapore and Taiwan struggled and Middle East Group III supply stayed disrupted.
More cargoes moved to India during May and June, helping compensate for weaker Singapore flows into that market, while deliveries into Europe eased.
July shipments showed signs of slowing ahead of scheduled maintenance at Yanbu in August.
Key Highlights
· India took delivery of two June-loading cargoes, with one arriving in June, and a second around mid-July.
· The pick-up in flows coincided with a rise in India’s own base oils exports over the same period, consistent with the country using more Group II domestically while exporting more Group III.
· There was a pause in cargoes to Europe for the first time in four months, following a wave of unusually large shipments in the three months to May.
Market Repercussions
Yanbu and Jeddah's ability to redirect cargoes everywhere from Europe to India and South Africa within a single quarter set Saudi Arabia apart as one of the market's key balancing suppliers.
That role could become harder to sustain. Scheduled maintenance at Yanbu in August would slow deliveries to export markets at a time when supply from alternative sources remained tighter than usual.
Exposure to wider Red Sea shipping risks added further uncertainty to a Middle East market already disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz closure. This time, the exposed supplier was the one that other markets had been leaning on to offset disruptions elsewhere.