Italy’s base oils output fell to a four-month low in September, raising the prospect of slowing the recent pick-up in Europe’s Group I base oils supply from the end of the second quarter.

The country’s base oils consumption also fell to a four-month low, pushing stocks to the highest level since early this year.

The dynamic raised the prospect of a further dip in Italy’s base oils output or a pick-up in exports to limit the size of the supply-build.

The country’s base oils output of around 44,000 tonnes in September fell from more than 55,000 tonnes in each of the previous three months to the lowest since May, government data showed.

Consumption continued to lag output, triggering a rise in stocks to more than 53,000 tonnes in September.

The volume was the highest since February, when maintenance work began on the country’s sole Group I base oils plant.   

The rise in Italy’s surplus supply could help to cushion the impact of unexpected production disruptions in Hungary after a fire at MOL’s Danube refinery in second-half October.

Signs of a pick-up in exports to markets like Turkey and Egypt during the fourth quarter could also limit a rise in Italy’s surplus supply.