Europe’s Group III base oils supply rose to a five-month high in February, boosting regional availability ahead of supply disruptions whose impact began to intensify into the second quarter.

Total supply rose to more than 150,000 tonnes in February, climbing from less than 130,000 tonnes in January to the highest since last September, Eurostat, HMRC and port data showed.

The rise in supply from most sources helped cover an expected seasonal pick-up in demand from the end of the first quarter.

It was insufficient to offset the unexpected loss of Middle East shipments from end-February.

Key Highlights

·         February imports from the Middle East rose to a three-month high, accounting for around 33% of total Group III supply.

·         Shipments from Asia rose to a nine-month high, lifting their share of total supply to 29%, up from 22% in 2025.

·         Shipments from Spain accounted for more than 20% of total supply for a second month.

·         March supply showed signs of holding relatively firm, supported by steady flows from all those sources.

Market Repercussions

Steady supply in February and March helped cover the seasonal rise in demand from the end of the first quarter.

Stronger demand absorbed those volumes faster, with concern about tighter second-quarter supply reinforcing the pick-up in requirements.

Those concerns showed signs of playing out in April, with steady flows from Asia and Europe insufficient to offset a decline in arrivals from the Middle East.

The disruption increased the importance of steady or higher shipments from Asia and Europe.

But plant maintenance, along with refinery run-cuts and stronger demand in competing markets such as the US, instead raised the risk of lower flows from both of those sources.